Optimism is a prerequisite for being a farmer, they say.
Never more so than in Ukraine.
Here, agriculture trade group the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation foresees that the country can meet domestic needs of about 27m tonnes and still have enough change over after a 48m-tonne harvest to export up to 24m tonnes.
That would appear to leave the Black Sea state 3m tonnes short.
The country may be able to rely to some extent on stocks left over from last year. But there are limits, lower than those the UAC sees, even to Ukraine's grain shipments.
Silo issue
One is on the amount of crop in a fit state to sell.
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Ukraine's grain dynamics, as seen by the UAC (year-on-year change)
Production: 48m tonnes (-10%)
Domestic consumption: 27m tonnes
Exports: up to 24m tonnes (-8%)
Year end stocks: 5m-6m tonnes (-25-38%) |
Ukraine is not, yet, noted for an abundance of glitzy storage facilities, which is one reason why the likes of farm operator Landkom International have been digging deep to build their own.
Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, suspended imports from Ukraine last year on quality grounds.
And that was Ukraine's shipments were nearly all of fresh stuff. To meet the UAC's objectives, Ukraine would be relying on grain which had been sat around for a year or more.
Politics factor
Even if enough quality grain can be found, it's doubtful there would be the political will to let it all go.]
It's been in both the interests of farmers, who need money for winter sowings, and the government, which needs foreign sales to prop up Ukraine's crumbling currency and economy, for grain exports to set a cracking pace so far into 2009-10.
That alliance may not last far into 2010.
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Ukraine's presidential election
...will take place on January 17, when incumbent Viktor Yushchenko faces challenges from former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich and current prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
Mr Yushchenko is currently seen as having only a small chance of re-election. |
While the prospect of next month's presidential elections may for now put economic recovery in the political driving seat, the priority may change fast if Ukraine keeps exporting grain at the 2m tonnes a month the UAC is advocating.
By June, Ukraine's inventories as a proportion of consumption, a key measure of market tightness, would have fallen to a snug 18%.
That ratio isn't not far off the stocks-to-use ratio for, say, wheat two years ago, when Ukraine limited exports to a trickle to keep bread prices in check.
And that's assuming the UAC's estimate of an 8m-tonne stocks overhang is right.
Plug in the less sanguine figure from analysis group UkrAgroConsult, and Ukraine would be left with a stock-to-use ratio of less than 1%.
Game of two halves
The first 12m tonnes of Ukraine's exports have been the easy bit. The next 12m will be altogether more tricky.
For that, Europe's grain exporters, who have been fighting an uphill battle against Black Sea competition, will be grateful.
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