Paris wheat prices typically move largely in line with those in Chicago, with some allowance for the dollar: euro exchange rate.
Last year, despite a dollar: euro exchange rate which ended the year pretty much where it started, Paris wheat underperformed by two percentage points, feeling the pressure from the return of Russia, a fiercely competitive exporter, to shipments.
Russian exports were halted for 11 months until July, after last year's drought-devastated harvest.
Overall Paris prices lost nearly 20% last year. Will they perform better in 2012?
Not many of the big banks give separate forecasts on Paris wheat. But we detail a couple that do.
(For forecasts for Chicago prices, click here.)
Rabobank
"Wheat prices in the US are expected to be more a function of the domestic corn market and less affected by the global wheat dynamics than prices elsewhere.
| Rabobank forecasts for Paris wheat price, 2012
Q1: E162 a tonne
Q2: E175 a tonne
Q3: E172 a tonne
Q4: E166 a tonne
Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter |
"European wheat prices look set to have the most potential for downside due to lower-cost export competition from the Black Sea region, although a weaker euro may provide a partial buffer early in 2012.
"European, and most notably French, wheat exports slumped early in the 2011-12 season as Black Sea region exports dominated market share into the key North African importer destinations.
"We expect European Union wheat stocks to climb 13% year on year, likely bounding [Paris] futures prices well below the highs of 011, and above the lows of 2009."
Commerzbank
| Commerzbank forecasts for Paris wheat price, 2012
Q1: E180 a tonne
Q2: E190 a tonne
Q3: E190 a tonne
Q4: E200 a tonne
Forecasts for average price, near-term contract, during the quarter
Year average: E190 a bushel, (E215 a tonne in 2011) |
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