What does it take to impress investors these days?
China's injection of 265bn remninbi ($42bn) into its
monetary system might have been expected to bring some semblance of joy to markets,
showing the determination of the world's second-largest economy to maintain a
grip on growth.
But joy turned to fears over what was provoking such a move
after the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for world economic
growth for the second time since April, flagging in particular challenges to
Europe and the US.
Shares closed
lower in Europe, and traded down 0.6% on Wall Street in late deals.
The safe haven of the dollar,
meanwhile, added 0.6%.
'Lack of follow
through buying'
And while Brent crude
did gain more than 2%, climbing back over $114 a barrel, and helping the CRB
index added nearly 1%, that was put down to tensions between Turkey and Syria
rather than China's move.
Signally, copper,
often viewed as an indicator of sentiment on China given the country's huge
appetite for the metal, closed a touch lower in London.
It needed something special to rise above the fray, which many
farm commodities turned out not to have.
The sell-off in many Chicago crops from earlier gains "was
primarily the result of the lack of follow through buying at the higher levels",
Darrell Holaday at Country Futures.
'Reached that
equilibrium'
Which for the likes of corn
and soybeans was perhaps not so
surprising given the prospect on Thursday of a key US Department of Agriculture
Wasde crop report, which will give fresh production estimates for the row
crops.
"We seem to have reached that equilibrium area ahead of the
report. No strong conviction on either side," Mr Holaday said.
That trumped the price-positive trend of the US harvest of
both crops getting into its latter stages, with USDA data later (delayed from
Monday by the Columbus Day holiday) expected to show the corn harvest 70%
complete, and nearly as high a proportion of soybeans in the barn.
"The slowing movement of soybeans into the cash markets with
harvest seen over 60% complete and technical factors are offering support to
price," Benson Quinn Commodities said.
'Fresh China import
interest'
For soybeans, there was "talk of fresh China import interest",
Benson Quinn said, also noting "firmer soymeal
basis values due to increased meal export demand".
However, the broker also flagged the dearth of US soybean
exports released under the USDA;s daily alerts system, even if soybean
shipments as released through cargo inspections were firm, at 45.6m bushels,
ahead of the 41.8m bushels a week before, and twice those of a year before.
"This has soybeans leaking back from morning highs."
And while Oil World reassured bulls on the squeeze on US soybean supplies, saying stocks would fall drastically even with an upgrade to the US harvest, Conab came up with upbeat forecasts for the Brazilian crop.
The November contract closed down 0.2% at $15.50 a bushel.
December soymeal closed down 0.3% at $471.00 a short ton.
'Firm cash corn'
Corn dropped too,
albeit by a more modest 0.1% to $7.42 a bushel for December delivery, given
some support by US cash prices.
"Debate continues on whether firm cash corn is being prompted
by use exceeding permissible off-take levels, or because of tight farmer
holding," Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien said.
"Either way, the corn pipeline is not getting enough corn,
suggesting firming spreads into year end."
In fact that didn't work on Tuesday, with the March contract
edging 0.25 cents higher to $7.42 ¼ a bushel to gain the smallest premium over
the December lot.
'Concern is developing'
Again, it was left to wheat
to fly the flag for bulls (although Chicago watchers might like to note a 2.0%
jump to $3.78 a bushel in oats,
often considered a leading indicator).
"The GFS weather model continues to point to questionable
rainfall in the Plains this weekend and that is pushing wheat values higher
again," Country Futures' Mr Holaday said.
Indeed, US
Commodities highlighted that "a concern is developing" over the weakness of the
switch in to an El Nino weather pattern, which had boded well for many crops.
"The drought in the US is continuing," just as wheat growers
are attempting to sow winter crop.
"The US weather is expected to be wetter in the Ohio Valley,
but more acres will be drier versus wetter going into the winter."
Wheat added 0.4% to $8.64 ¼ a bushel in Chicago for December
delivery, while gaining 0.6% to E261.50 a tonne in Paris for November, and
edging 0.1% higher to £201.75 a tonne in London, also for November.
Cocoa question mark
Many soft commodities struggled for headway too, with data
from Unica showing a sharp slowdown in Brazil Centre South sugar production providing on temporary support to prices.
New York's March raw sugar lot closed up 0.2% at 21.47 cents
a pound.
But cocoa did
better, amid talk that a dearth of sunlight in Nigeria may delay the 2012-13 harvest,
raising a further question mark over the industry in the country, which saw its
2011-12 crop downgraded last month by the Cocoa Association of Nigeria by
300,000 tonnes to 250,000 tonnes, with disease pressures weighing too.
London cocoa for December added 1.6% to £1,562 a tonne, with
its New York peer gaining 1.5% to $2,417 a tonne.