PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 20:47 GMT, Tuesday, 7th Sept 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Evening markets: crops prove a match for EU bank fears

Those concerns about Europe's banks appear to have been dormant, rather than despatched.

A warning from Germany's banking association that the country's 10 biggest banks may need to raise E105bn of new capital did for last week's revival in sentiment in many markets.

Shares lost ground, as did oil, which fell back below $74 a barrel, while the dollar gained nearly 1% against a basket of currencies, which is bad news for prices of dollar-denominated assets such as crops, making them less competitive as exports.

Bear points 

And if that painted a bleak backdrop for crop prices, traders latched onto some specific challenges in the foreground for the asset class too.

"With funds holding sizeable net longs in corn, beans and wheat combined, the market is ripe for a setback," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

Then there is the prospect on Friday of the US Department of Agriculture's key monthly report on global crop supply and demand, often an excuse for closing positions.

"Expect a lower start on higher US dollar and profit taking heading into Friday's report," Benson Quinn added, not irrationally.

Export fillip 

Nonetheless, crops managed a respectable finish, especially soybeans, which closed 1.4% higher at $10.43 � a bushel for September.

The better-traded November lot adding 1.6% to $10.52 a bushel � the best close for a nearest-but-one contract for nine months.

The oilseed had two factors in its favour. The first was the announcement, through the USDA's daily reporting system, of sales of more than 90,000 tonnes of US soyoil to buyers including China.

Given that America is only expected to ship 950,000 tonnes of the vegetable oil this year, that is a huge deal.

The second was that US soybean shipments themselves were no slouch, as measured by the US weekly export inspections, coming in at 13.9m bushels, some 2m bushels ahead of the most optimistic trade forecast.

North-south divide 

Corn inched its way to its highest close for more than a year, adding 0.4% to $4.51 � a bushel for September delivery, with the December lot taking on the same to end at $4.66 � a bushel.

And this despite some doubts about how disappointing the US corn harvest really is proving.

"Yield reports from the long weekend still suggest lower corn yields in the south but early results in the north are pointing to better-than-expected yields," Benson Quinn said.

US Commodities had heard similar whispers, talking of yields of 5-15 bushels per acre in southern areas, but yields in the north "improving to about the same as a year ago and some above".

The broker made another bearish observation, on Friday's report, noting that the USDA typically lowers its yield estimates "in smaller increments, being conservative", so potentially putting the large downward revision some are banking on out of the picture.

Inventory question 

So what figure might investors need to see on Friday to avoid a corn market meltdown?

US Commodities said it "believes that the corn market has now dialled in a corn yield of 159-161 bushels per acre", with prices at $4.60 a bushel.

Still, the other fact markets are focusing on is consumption, for which hopes have been inflated by the higher price of wheat, a rival in some uses.

"If the carryout sinks under 900,000-1bn bushels rationing will need to occur, and that most likely will be $5.00-a-bushel-plus front month corn," the broker said.

Rains on the Plains 

As for wheat itself, it was the weakest of the big three, shedding 0.8% to $7.02 � a bushel for September delivery, and the same to $7.35 � a bushel for December.

Some blamed the decline on a Russian stocks figure of 26m tonnes, even though this had been around for a couple of weeks, (and indeed was reported on Agrimoney.com).

Others attributed it to rains easing concerns for America's own winter wheat plantings, which had appeared set to take place in drier-than-ideal conditions.

"Rain moving into the Southern Plains from the remnants of the tropical storm is a little negative for wheat as it will help some soil moisture in some hard red winter wheat areas," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said.

However, many just blamed profit-taking ahead of Friday's report, which looks unlikely to come out with any more huge crop downgrades.

Fund support 

Among softs, sugar made waves by at last taking prices to a six-month high, as reported elsewhere on Agrimoney.com.

But coffee made it to a fresh highest-since-1997 in New York, adding 3.1% to 190.70 cents a pound for September delivery. The December lot gained 2.9% to 192.30 cents a pound.

The rise was largely attributed to funds which "had the contract highs in their sights, and then successfully set it for a spike into fresh 13-year high ground", Ralph Hawes at Sucden Financial said.

The performance helped London's best-traded November robusta coffee contract crawl $3 into positive territory to close at $1,620 a tonne.

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