Was it going to be third time lucky for Chicago wheat, and the first above $6 a bushel close since June last year?

Not a chance. The grain didn't even make it above the $6 mark, witnessing some orderly profit-taking to close down 1.1% at $5.89 ½ a bushel – gains-booking which also saw soybeans surrender a key staging post.

The August lot closed down 1.8% at $9.98 ¼ a bushel, its first sub-10 bucks a bushel close for nearly three weeks.

And both were eclipsed on the loser board by corn, which finished down 2.0% at $3.64 a bushel for September delivery.

And this despite a weaker dollar, down 0.5% against a basket of currencies, which should have made US exports such as crops look more competitive. Indeed, external markets were generally positive, with shares showing reasonable gains pretty much across the piste, and copper up too.

Fickle funds 

But maybe this was part of the problem. As Glencore's UK grain arm noted, the funds which have pushed wheat up more than 20% this month, leading the rally in other grains, are fickle friends.

"They'll only be in wheat as long as it continues to perform in terms of rising prices," the merchant said.

"If some other commodity, copper, silver, natural gas or whatever, looks more attractive then they will be off, selling their huge positions and sending prices down as fast as they have risen."

European volumes surge 

And, it was interesting to note European wheat underperforming on Monday, after appearing to have attracted an unusually large proportion of that fund attention.

Volumes in London's November wheat contract, which fell 1.5% to £131.25 a tonne, have been the best for a near-term contract since the heydays of 2007.

In Paris, volumes have been distinctly better, with the turnover in the November lot topping 38,800 contracts on Thursday (a level modest, but not unheard of, in Chicago, the wheat speculators' playground).

Still, volumes were back below 11,000 on Monday, when the November contract fell 1.1% to E177.50 a tonne.

Not enough juice 

While wheat had some factors ranged for it on Monday, including increasing worries over Argentina and Russia's extraordinary weather - which reached a record in Moscow at nearly at 100 degrees Fahrenheit, triggering peat fires – there was nothing juicy enough to keep the rally going for now, traders said.

"The market has got to the stage where it needs fresh supportive information even to stand still," a UK trader told Agrimoney.com

Nor does the Chicago market any more have the luxury of masses of investors with short positions to cover.

"Funds are long 25,000 contracts of wheat," US Commodities said. "This is a 57-week high in the fund long position."

Non-threatening forecasts

Funds are longer on corn too, by nearly 200,000 contracts, the highest measure in nearly six months.

And if any of them were looking for help from poor weather, it never came.

 "Weekend rains in the Corn Belt are today's pressuring factor. Current weather forecasts look non-threatening as well," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said.

Indeed, investors are expecting better crop ratings for both corn and soybeans in the latest weekly US Department of Agriculture crop progress report due later on Monday.

"The good or excellent ratings on corn and soybeans are expected to be steady to up 1% across the Corn Belt," US Commodities said, adding that Gulf of Mexico basis levels were falling for soybeans too.

With crush margins were "poor across the Corn Belt", investors had enough reason to give the oilseed the cold shoulder.

Ramadan sweetener

Bulls were safer in the softs complex, where sugar had an altogether better day, closing up 2.0% in New York, for October delivery, at 18.62 cents a pound, a fresh four-month high for a spot contract.

In London, October white sugar closed up 1.4% at $566.10 a tonne.

The main catalysts were said to be further rain on the Brazilian seaboard, which is preventing load up of ships for commodity especially ill-suited for coping with moisture, and growing demand from many Islamic countries, notably Pakistan, in the run up to Ramadan.

Coffee had data showing a 69% surge this month in exports from Vietnam, the top producer of robusta beans – statistics taken by some as bearish (extra supplies) and some as bullish (fewer Vietnamese stocks left), and ended up leaving the market little changed.

"There is less interest in coffee today, and what there has been is largely involved in a rollover" of September to December contracts, Raplh Hawes at Sucden Financial told Agrimoney.com.

London's September arabica lot ended down 0.4% at $1,723 a tonne, with New York's September arabica contract closing down 0.2% at 165.60 cents a pound.