PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 21:08 GMT, Monday, 5th Jul 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Evening markets: European crops enjoy day of independence

Usually when Chicago and New York, the market-leading commodity markets, go on holiday, Paris and London put their feet up too.

Not so this time. While America celebrated Independence Day, Europe had a go at autonomy too, in both grains and softs.

For sugar, the longstanding supply squeeze was the issue. What, with Thailand, the second-ranked exporter of the sweetener, potentially suffering a 15% slide in output this year, according to Rabobank, the global production surplus may not be quite as comfortable as investors have believed.

And where there is sugar, in Brazil, vessels are queuing up to fill by approaching near-three-figure amounts, if reports are to be believed.

White sugar for August delivery added 2.0% to $571.50 a tonne in London, the best close for a near-term lot for nearly four months.

Cocoa complaints 

Cocoa made ground too, although only £2 to hit £2,557 a tonne for July delivery, with the September lot performing better, up 1.0% at £2,400 a tonne.

Here Europe's rule was something of a thorny issue, with 16 cocoa groups writing to Liffe, London's futures exchange, to complain about the extent of speculation in the market.

London prices have performed better than those in New York, a matter which reflects in part the strength of the dollar, which makes sterling-denominated commodities more competitive, but also amid complaints that funds are playing too major a role.

Fundamentally, of course, there is also the problem of output in Ivory Coast, the biggest producer, suffering some long-term problems.

 A poll on Monday showed exporters expect cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports to have reached 1.058m tonnes so far in 2009-10, as of July 4, a couple of thousand tonnes down on a year before. And this after a promising start to the season, which began in October.

Heat fears 

Grains, however, made the strongest gains, as fears of dry weather, cranked up a gear after storms in France, the European Union's biggest grain producing country, failed to deliver the rain some had expected, while Russian officials cut their harvest estimate thanks to drought.

"Past experience, particularly from 2003, suggests that very hot weather can simply bring crop development to a grinding halt," Glencore's UK grain arm said.

"Whether it's been hot enough so far to do this [in Europe], nobody is prepared to say but early yields of winter barley in the Paris basin have been poor, leading many traders to expect a similar effect in wheat."

The merchant added: "We hardly need to mention that it has been a bit dry in the UK over the last few months with conditions especially bad in the central south and East Anglia."

Paris wheat for November closed up 2.7% at E154.25 a tonne, the best for nearest-but-one contract for a year, while its London equivalent came close to recording the same achieving, ending up 3.6% at £115.00 a tonne, the best for second-in contract since mid-July last year.

Palm slumps

Rapeseed also ended higher, adding E2.00 to E328.75 a tonne in Paris for November delivery, again helped by fears for the dry weather.

However, it was a different story for Kuala Lumpur's oilseed, palm oil, which closed earlier down 1.9% at 2,230 ringgit a tonne, its lowest for seven months.

The slide was blamed on fears for weak exports, exacerbated by a stronger ringgit, which made Malaysian exports less affordable.

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