In the early period of this year's grain and oilseeds rally, a week could not begin without a rise in prices.

Investors who took profits on Fridays for fears of rain entering the US weather forecast over the weekend would pile back into the market.

Now, it is getting to be quite the opposite, with "the direction" of futures "solidly in the red like last week", Darrell Holaday at Country Futures noted.

'Selling pressure is intensifying'

As for the reasons behind the pressure, well, there was mention of economic worries over China and Europe, and a drop in Brent crude prices below $110 a barrel, besides crop-specific factors commonplace of late.

At RJ O'Brien, Richard Feltes said: "Selling pressure is intensifying as more players engage with the same themes that dominated trade last week—tepid corn export demand, fund liquidation, better-than-expected soybean yields and poor chart action."

But to dismiss Monday as some kind of Groundhog Day would be to undersell it.

There were some fresh developments beginning to come into the mix (and beyond the latest, still unconfirmed, rumours of Chinese buyers snapping up soybeans on the break in prices).

End of the month, quarter

For one, there was more talk of the US crop stocks data coming at the end of the week, which is expected to be downright confusing as an early harvest adds to inventories left over from 2011, with that not the only reason Friday is being seen as important.

 "The last topic that you will hear this week will be that we are approaching the end of the month and the end of the quarter," Steve Georgy at Allendale said.

"This usually has fund money moving around and has the ability to push the grain markets around as well."

Typically, the ends of months are seen as encouraging funds to close positions, before pumping in money at month/quarter beginning.

Seasonal lows this week?

But are funds really wanting to sell down much more, after the liquidation that has already happened, and highlighted in latest regulatory data?

"Net long fund positions in corn and soybeans have gotten considerably more manageable over the course of the last week," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

That was something of a change of general market thinking of late.

As was talk that harvest pressure may be nearing its end too, with bulls also offered cheer by Barclays Capital crop price forecasts.

"Many in the trade will expect the agriculture markets to put in seasonal lows early this week," Benson Quinn said.

'Basis levels beginning to firm'

Indeed, while USDA crop progress data later on Monday are expected to show the corn harvest 41-45% complete, and soybean harvest some 20-24% finished, next week's could be of more significance.

"By October 1, 62-64% of the corn should be harvested nationally," US Commodities said.

That matters as around that mark through harvest, many investors believe that harvest pressure on prices eases.

Already, "basis levels are beginning to firm", US Commodities noted.

Prices drop 

The upshot was a market which, while following its knee-jerk tendency of late to trader lower, did not capitulate.

Chicago soybeans for November ended down 0.7% at $16.10 a bushel, nearly $0.20 a bushel above their intraday low, and despite a tumble in Kuala Lumpur palm oil prices which at one point approached 7%.

Corn for December dropped 0.7% to $7.44 ¾ a bushel, again well above the day low.

'Good rainfall potential'

Indeed, if there was a disappointment, it was in wheat, which having largely led the market of late, with its US harvest and related price pressure now past, failed to outperform this time.

Weather was largely to blame, as forecasts indicated rains for areas which need them, whether for crop filling, in Australia, or sowing, in the US.

"The GFS model continuing to point to good rainfall potential in Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Northern and Oklahoma and Texas by the end of the week," Darrel Holaday said.

The model indicates central and southern Oklahoma may get shorted."

Australian hopes

Mike O'Dea at FCStone said: "Rain continues to be in the forecast for the US hard red winter wheat areas, and rain chances are improving for Australia.

"Western [Australia] wheat areas are to see light showers but south east parts of the country can see 1-2 inch rains in the middle of the week.

"While not a crop maker, it would allow crop conditions to stabilise."

With no further indication of Russian grain export curbs on the way, or indeed much expectation that restrictions would mean much given that the country's prices are already rising above competitive levels, wheat fell 0.7% to $8.92 a bushel in Chicago for December.

In Paris, wheat dropped 1.3% to E260.50 a tonne, and in London by 0.9% to £204.65 a tonne, for November contracts in both cases.

Harvest delays

Raw sugar continued to demonstrate a fresh, upward approach too, adding 0.6% to 19.50 cents a pound for New York's October contract.

The sweetener was given support by rains which raised doubts about the resurgence in the Brazil Centre South cane crush.

"Unica feel that the crush will continue till mid December, but if rains get heavier, mills may prefer to shut down earlier and allow the rains to benefit cane to be crushed in," Nick Penney at Sucden Financial said.

But New York cocoa for December dropped 3% to $2,446 a tonne, its lowest close for a month.