11:29 GMT, Saturday, 31st July 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Evening markets: funds drive wheat to best month since 1959

Crop investors don't get stage fright. Not, at least, when "speculative greed" is in town.

They were faced with several cues for profit-taking. There was the weekend ahead, often a time when caution rules. It was the end of the month, when funds often clean up positions.

And in external markets at least, riskier assets were somewhat off the menu, after lower-than-expected US economic growth data.

But the farm commodities sphere was the exception, with coffee hitting a fresh 12-year high, and soybeans their highest for six months, despite a fourth day of heavy shopping which sent wheat up 5.4% to $6.61 ½ a bushel in Chicago.

Historic month 

"We are seeing the same ole, same ole as we've seen all week," said Darrell Holaday at Country Futures.

"Wheat continues to make new highs for the year."

But could the grain really pull of its best month since 1973, the challenge at the start of trade?

Wheat didn't just achieve the aim, it trounced it, soaring 42% during July to put the clock back in fact to at least 1959 in terms of its biggest rise in a calendar month, according to Commodity Trend Service. The previous record during this period was a 38% gain in 1964.

Bandwagon rolls

"It's typical fund behaviour," a London trader told Agrimoney.com.

"They see something moving higher, jump on the bandwagon and getting moving even faster."

US Commodities said: "The new highs attracted new speculative money to the market

"The world wheat market has now built a big shift in export demand. The market is now in the 'short supplies' fear with speculative greed flowing into the markets."

Russia export fears

Not that all of the buying was on pure speculative grounds.

July's wheat price gains

Chicago: +42%

London: +40%

Kansas: +39%

Minneapolis: 36%

Paris: +34%

Gains from close June 30 to close on July30 for near-term contracts, except in Paris, where nearest-but-one lot is used 

Toepfer International analysts provided some support on fundamental supply and demand grounds by cutting their estimate for the European Union soft wheat crop potentially as low as 126m tonnes.

Russia had a somewhat "is that the best you can do" reaction by confirming that its United Grain Company, the state grain trader, would export 1m tonnes of grain this year.

The country had been as a whole expected, until recently, to ship 20m tonnes in 2010-11, but which is now widely expected to resort to curbs on shipments following the worst drought in

Canada wet

And the Canadian Wheat Board, the world's top barley and wheat exporter, said that it would not be filling up any of the vacuum left by Russia, estimating its exports at 15.1m tonnes, down 20% on 2009-10.

The figures came as the board cut further its forecast for western Canada's rain-damaged crop, and after the close of European markets.

Still, London wheat for November had already closed up 3.3% at a two-year high (for a spot contract) of £142.50 a tonne.

Paris's November lot ended 3.9% higher at E195.25 a tonne, its best since August 2008.

Yield upgrades? 

The buying contagion spread to other Chicago crops too, even though weather for US corn and soybean fields looks pretty benign for now.

While the Midwest will see warmer temperatures next week "corn maturity is well advanced and soybeans can withstand the heat," US Commodities said.

Indeed, traders are already predicting that the US Department of Agriculture's crop progress report on Monday may show an uplift in crop condition.

"The debate is now running high on the expected yield on corn and soybeans in the August [global crop] report," the broker added.

Still, corn added 3.6% to $3.79 ¼ a bushel, with August soybeans ending up 2.5% at $10.52 ½ a bushel, the best for a spot lot since January.

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