PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 18:42 GMT, Friday, 19th Oct 2012, by Agrimoney.com
Evening markets: softs beat grains, despite Ukraine ban talk

If grain markets stole the headlines among agricultural commodities, after Ukraine, apparently, banned wheat exports, it was softs which ratcheted up the gains.

External markets remained mired over disappointment at US earnings announcements, notably Thursday's from Google, with shares dropping 1.3% in New York.

The average commodity found the day heavy going, shedding 0.7%, according to the CRB index.

A 0.3% rebound in the dollar added to pressure on dollar-denominated assets, making them less affordable to buyers in other currencies.

Weak, but not that weak

But cocoa found headway easy after another set of grind data (following Europe's on Tuesday) which, while poor, were not as bad as the market had expected.

North American cocoa grindings in the July-to-September quarter fell 2.2%, year on year, to 121,890 tonnes.

That was less than the drop of at least 3%, and potentially 10%, that traders had expected.

Cocoa for December closed up 2.5% at £1,614 a tonne in London, and by 2.1% at $2,489 a tonne in New York.

'Significant drawdown'

In London, robusta coffee for November gained 2.1% to $2,063 a tonne after a surprise drop of more than 10,000 tonnes, to 119,450 tonnes, in inventories for delivery against London futures.

Sucden Financial, calling the decline a "significant drawdown", said that "as the news came in this morning the market was expected up on the open and didn't disappoint with an $8 gap up from yesterdays close".

New York arabica coffee gained too, by 1.9% to 161.65 cents a pound, on a sport of bargain hunting after in the last session hitting among its lowest levels in four months.

That got many investors thinking that, with the bean now at the bottom of its recent range, a rise might be in order back nearer to 185 cents a pound or so, the top of its chart corridor.

'Rushing to beat the ban'

So against that background, even the 0.8% gain to $8.75 ¼ a bushel enjoyed by December wheat in Chicago, with half an hour's trading or so to go, looked pretty puny.

It was far lower than might be expected when a country such as Ukraine announces an export ban.

But investors' reluctance to push prices higher reflected in part the fact that this has yet to be confirmed by the government, if looking highly likely, given the extent of trade talk.

Furthermore, curbs had been anticipated.

"This news, following a drop in production by one third, was perhaps no surprise," traders at UK grain merchant Frontier, part owned by Cargill, said.

"Exporters have been rushing to beat the ban and official sources had already flagged that keeping bread prices low is a key government policy."

'Really sparked interest'

And even without a formal ban on Ukraine exports, it was hardly looking likely that the country had much more to give to international markets, with its prices losing their competitive edge over those from the likes of Europe and the US to where importers are seen switching demand from the Black Sea.

"Recent Ukrainian offers have not been as competitive due to higher interior prices," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

Indeed, many investors seemed more excited by the US Department of Agriculture's announcement that the US had sold 230,000 tonnes of wheat to an "unknown" destination.

"This has really sparked interest in the industry," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said.

Chinese buying?

This was in part because of the swirling speculation that China is in for a little corn and wheat stockpiling, and was said this week to have purchased nearly 300,000 tonnes of wheat from Canada.

"One would expect China to report the purchase as an unknown," Mr Holaday said.

But if some evidence looked pleasingly circumstantial as regards a Chinese purchase, Mr Holaday also noted that the wheat bought was a mix of hard red winter, as used largely in bread, soft red winter, for bread or feed, and durum, used in making pasta.

"That does not sound like China. Sounds more like an Egyptian or Korean purchase."

'Stressed wheat pipeline'

Still, such trade "is what the market has been anticipating as the world price of wheat has been moving up and now very close to US offers".

US Commodities said: "US wheat is now nearing competitive levels."

Indeed, ideas of strong competition from Europe are losing ground too, given the run of downgrades, the latest on Thursday by Strategie Grains, to the region's corn harvest.

"Due to limited global corn supplies, the European Union will likely have to factor in higher feed wheat usage, which would stress their wheat pipeline, if their current pace of exports continues much longer," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

"Many in the trade have estimated a stocks-to-use ratio for the EU at well under 10%," a low figure signalling tight supplies and therefore strong competition among buyers for supplies, and high prices.

In fact, Rabobank, in a bullish report on crop prices, issued a figure of 6.1% for the EU stocks-to-use ratio at the close of 2012-13 – the lowest since records begin in 1960.

In Europe itself, wheat for November added 1.2% to E262.75 a tonne in Paris, and 1.4% to £206.25 a tonne in London.

'Is that it?'

Back in Chicago, wheat's performance helped fellow grain corn.

But so did the idea that, with harvest nearly over, pressure on prices from the once-a-year spike in supplies will wane too.

"The market is now looking around with and asking, 'is that it?'" Mr Hoalday said.

"No longer will the market sell them grain. End users are very quickly realising they now have to go out and buy grain."

Bull spread

Furthermore, US cash markets remained firm too.

And, as an extra signal of happier times for bulls, December corn nudged higher its premium over the March contract to some 2 cents a bushel – growing the so-called bull spread, and signalling some tightness in near-term supplies.

(Usually, it is later contracts that are worth more, to account for storage and interest charges, and risk.)

Corn for December added 0.3% to $7.62 ¾ a bushel.

'Overhanging the market'

However, soybeans could not hold on to gains, in part on mixed signals from South American weather, with wetness which is hampering Argentine corn sowings potentially fostering a switch to soybeans.

Furthermore, while there were many investors who reported that weather was too dry in central and northern Brazil, a bad sign for sowings, others said the opposite, with US Commodities, for instance, terming conditions in these regions "non-threatening".

Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien also reminded of the large speculative net long position which still remains over the oilseed.

"Fund longs, farmers and small spec ulative longs would like to believe that fall lows are in.

"But large managed fund longs overhanging the market will keep bulls cautious."

Soybeans for November eased 0.4% to $15.38 ¾ a bushel in late deals.

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