Soft commodities found gains on Tuesday, in defiance of a
weaker market mood after Spain's prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, disappointed
investors by saying the country was not imminently to seek aid with its debt
issues.
In New York, raw
sugar added 2.2% to 21.59 cents a pound, although largely on technical
factors, as rising prices fed on themselves to push holders of short positions
out of the market.
"The chat around the market seems to be generally bearish
but the prospect of further fund covering can't be ruled out," Sucden said.
'Added fuel to the
fire'
Also in New York, arabica
coffee added 3.1% to 183.65 cents a pound, the highest finish for a spot
contract since July, helped by a round of short covering encouraged by
forecasts of dry weather in Brazilian coffee districts.
This would represent a less-than-ideal follow on from a good
round of flowering on coffee trees,
Parts of Espírito Santo, for instance, are reported to have
produced their best flowers for four years, and some weeks ahead of normal,
helped by the combination of dryness, followed by early September rains.
"Further talk of Brazilian government loans" to help coffee
farmers, so reducing the pressure to sell beans "only added fuel to the fire",
Sucden Financial said.
'Larger soybean
production number'
However, in Chicago, grains and oilseeds continued their
decline, underperforming a static commodities market overall, as measured by the
CRB index.
The decline in soybeans
attracted the most trade attention, dragging the November lot to a three-month
low for a spot contract of $15.26 ½ a bushel at one stage, pressed not just by a rapid harvest,
which has bumped up supplies for now, but growing ideas of a better-than-thought
one too.
Darrell Holaday at Country Futures said: "The pre-report
production estimates continue to indicate that the industry will be expecting a
larger soybean production number from US Department of Agriculture next week,"
in its monthly Wasde crop report.
"We question that, but that is what the market is trading."
'Market desperately
needs demand'
US Commodities said that "soybean yields across the Corn Belt
are larger to, in some cases, much larger than expected.
"The market has now dialled in a yield jump of 2-2.5 bushels
per acre," compared with the current USDA yield estimate of 35.3 bushels per
acre.
Nor is there so much talk of demand around, with China, the
top soybean importer, on holiday.
Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien said: "The soybean market
desperately needs demand which is unlikely near term with world's largest soy
buyer on holiday while other end users await a chart bounce."
'Very weak palm oil
market'
In fact, Asia provided an ultra-negative influence on the
complex with crude palm oil prices
slumping 8.5% to 2,255 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur, the lowest close since
November 2009, amid signs of weak Malaysian palm exports at a time when output
is around a seasonal high.
"Palm oil continues to pull the rug out from under the vegetable
oil complex," FCStone said.
"We have a very weak palm oil market that will steal demand
from the other more expensive vegoils."
Chicago soyoil
itself for December entered late deals down 1.0% at 50.70 cents a pound, while
soybeans were 1.8% lower at 15.31 ¾ a bushel.
Rain refreshment
That was enough even to eclipse Chicago wheat, which stood down 1.6% at $8.69 ¾ a bushel, sapped by rains
boosting hopes for US winter wheat sowings, which had looked set to be troubled
by drought.
Not that US dryness worries are over.
"Kansas received only 0.60 inches of rainfall last week, not
improving field moisture enough," Gail Martell at Martell Crop Projections
said.
"Growers in the top US wheat state rated topsoil moisture at
68% short-very short, 32% adequate and 0% surplus.
"Summer drought was so severe that soil profiles have become
dry through a deep layer. It would take
4.5 inches of rainfall to fully replenish parched fields."
'Moved up too high'
However, there were continued worries about whether the
grain was too expensive compared with corn.
"The pressure in wheat the last two days is somewhat tied to
the idea that wheat moved up too high and locked it out of feed rations and
pushed more corn into the feed ration," Darrell Holaday at Country Futures
said.
US wheat has also yet to prove itself on export markets so
far in 2012-13, in competing to replace drought-reduced Black Sea supplies.
And, indeed Mr Feltes noted "continued wheat offers out of
Black Sea", evident in preliminary results of an Iraq tender showing
competitive Romanian and Ukraine offers, and in" low-ball Australian wheat
offers".
'Potential to offer support'
Corn was the
strongest of Chicago's big three gains, holding, just, on to positive territory
in closing deals, with a gain of 0.1% leaving the December lot at $7.57 ¾ a bushel,
helped in part by a continued reaction to Friday's weak US inventory number,
which caught many investors off-guard.
They have been continuing to unwind short corn, long wheat
or soybean spreads, partly explaining the weakness in those markets too.
Furthermore, the record US harvest pace "has the potential
to offer support as harvest get completed as corn gets more difficult to buy",
and harvest pressure weakens, Benson Quinn Commodities said.
The broker added: "Some in the trade still expect the corn
crop to get smaller on future USDA reports, despite better than expected yields
in many areas of the northern Plains"