If one trading pattern beloved of Chicago traders, the Turnaround Tuesday, failed it was because another one held.

Crops did not following the script of reversing the strong trend of a Monday and, in this case, closing higher.

But soybeans at least did manage to fulfil the idea of fund trouble, for bears or bulls, coming in threes.

"Funds usually buy or sell in three-day chunks," Mike Mawdsley at broker Market 1 said, noting that meant that "those wanting out are able to do so in an orderly fashion".

Benson Quinn Commodities also suggested that Tuesday could "finish a three-day liquidation phase".

Long losing streak

"If only it was three," corn investors might say.

The close of Chicago corn for March down 0.9%, while not large in extent, was large in significance, in marking an eighth successive negative close, the longest since March 2010, besides taking the lot back below the psychologically-important point of $7 a bushel.

The contract actually finished at a one-month low of $6.96 ¼ a bushel.

For wheat investors, it was actually only a second successive negative close, although it might feel like more, in Chicago's March lot falling 1.3% to $7.32 a bushel, its lowest close for seven months.

Supply-demand balance

But Chicago soybeans for March did fall for a third successive trading day, this time by 0.8% to $14.20 ¾ a bushel, a four-week low. (Will there be a fourth negative close?)

The drop put the contract's the 30-day moving average, which achieved brief fame after in the last session in marking the closing price, firmly in the rear-view mirror with the better-known 20-day, 50-day, 200-day etc moving averages.

The decline was attributed, largely, to the same cocktail which sank prices in the last session – an improving South American weather outlook boosting supply hopes at a time when big Asian buyers, such as China, are on holiday, so leaving the demand picture looking threadbare.

'Bulls-eye on moisture'

On the weather, the outlook appeared better for farmer on the main scores.

In Argentina, which needs rain "the weather in Argentina is wetter this morning for Saturday", US Commodities said.

"The core dry areas are expected to receive a bulls-eye on moisture."

As weather service MDA put it "light and scattered showers are expected to develop tomorrow, continuing through Saturday", and in so doing, "provide limited relief from dryness, especially in Buenos Aires".

In the six-to-10 day outlook, "heavier and more widespread rains should lead to more significant improvements in soil moisture".

Alternative touch

OK, WxRisk.com noted that the GFS model "still does not bring significant rains into Cordoba Buenos Aires or La Pampa" in the six-to-10 day period.

And both the European and the GFS models "insist that things will turn significantly drier in the 11-to-15 day period, and that there is no second rain event follow-up to these rains".

But it was not enough to prevent investors removing further weather premium, especially when parts of more northerly Brazil, which have been unduly wet, look like turning drier, allowing the early soybean harvest to speed up a bit.

"Drier weather across northern Brazil over the next several days will allow soybean and first crop corn harvesting to make better progress," MDA said.

'History of walking out'

The news was not all bearish, with investors getting reminders of Brazil's logistical shortcomings.

Benson Quinn Commodities noted talk of "boats lining up in Brazil, with Carnival holiday seen pushing wait times out near 45-days".

At Alllendale, Paul Georgy said: "We are now hearing talk that Brazilian port workers are going to strike starting on February 19.

"They have a history of walking out at a time when the world needs grain."

And Michael Cordonnier, the respected crop scout, cut by 1m tonnes to 50m tonnes his forecast for the Argentine soybean crop.

However, not so positive was talk of a huge overhang of Argentine soybeans not yet sold, as farmers wait for an expected currency devaluation.

Barclays quits

The idea of better weather undermined corn futures too, as did the prospect of a rise back above 2bn bushels in US stocks of the grain at the end of 2013-14, as outlined on Monday in the US Department of Agriculture's so-called baseline forecasts.

"Trade is turning its sights to new crop, with the USDA releasing its long-term baseline projections yesterday, with US stocks expected to climb on return to normal weather and trend-line yields," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

At Country Futures, Jerry Stowell flagged a negative to all markets from the fact that "Barclays announced today that they will no longer trade the ag commodities.

"That news, along with sloppy demand news, is a major pressuring factor as well."

'Will improve moisture a bit'

And wheat was hardly a help in being undermined again by moisture for drought-hit Plains area where seedlings have struggled.

"Snow should develop across western Oklahoma, north western Texas, and south western Kansas today, with rain expected in eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma," MDA said.

"Snow in south western areas today will improve moisture a bit once it melts."

There was actually some positive news on demand, with Jordan buying 50,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat at tender, apparently for $380 a tonne including shipping, and South Korea's Major Feedmill Group purchasing 55,000 tonnes of wheat, and Bangladesh 50,000 tonnes.

But with the last two orders thought to have gone to India – if not a 23,100-tonne order by South Korea's Daehan Flour Mills which went to the US – the deals had limited impact on supporting Chicago prices.

Wheat vs corn

Nor did they do much to help Paris wheat, which for March ended down 1.8% at E241.75 a tonne, the lowest finish for a spot contract in seven months.

London's May lot ended down 1.9% at £203.85 a tonne, the contract's weakest finish since October.

Traders at a major European commodities house noted that, for new crop at least, "cheap Black Sea corn continues to displace wheat in the feed ration.

With a heavier EU wheat harvest in the offing, "this could pressure prices further in coming months if /when the corn gets planted".

Coffee revives

Among soft commodities, New York arabica coffee for May managed a recovery from a 32-month low, recovering from 141.25 cents a pound, the lowest for a spot lot since June 2010, to close at 143.25 cents a pound, a gain of 0.2% on the day.

"Outright prices have largely stayed within a 4-5 cent range and, despite breaking out and making a new low for the year, the 139.00 cents-a-pound support held firm and rejected the further advances of the shorts, rallying all the way back to the top of the range," Sucden Financial said.

However, New York saw sugar for March ended down 2.0% at 18.08 cents a pound, within an ace of its own two-year low.