PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 20:48 GMT, Wednesday, 30th Jun 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Evening markets: twin data boost sends corn soaring 9%

What a difference a day can make.

Grains, which ended the last session down in the dumps, had a stormer on Wednesday, led by corn, which rebounded from a seven-month low in some style.

Indeed, Chicago's July lot was limit up ($0.30 a bushel) at one point before ending just shy of that, up 9.0%, or 29.25 cents, at $3.54 � a bushel.

They were powered ahead by a double barrel of bullish US Department of Agriculture data. US farmers had planted some 1.3m acres less with corn than analysts had expected, and stocks left over from the last season were smaller than expected, by nearly 300m bushels.

To hell with the external markets which dogged trading in the last session (but which were actually pretty neutral on Wednesday).

 'Difficult to believe'

There were some questions about the USDA figures. "Both numbers are supportive, but a little difficult to believe," said Darrell Holaday at Country Futures, questioning in particular the stocks number, which assumed quite some corn use, or even that supplies were lower than had been thought.

"One must question whether or not the size of the 2009 crop was overstated," he said.

In London, Rabobank analysts also asked questions of the stocks number, saying it implied a "massive 687m bushels" in corn used in the March-to-May period, a 25% increase, "not witnessed since 1994-95".

"The stocks figure has many asking the question, 'where did all the corn go'," the bank added.

Rice loses out 

Still, as Mr Holaday said, "at this time this is what we will trade".

And trade the market did, sending not just corn higher, but wheat, which rose 5.2% to $4.64 � a bushel for July even though its own stocks and sowings data were mildly disappointing.

"There is nothing bullish about the wheat numbers except the corn numbers," Mr Holaday said.

Oats added 2.6% to $2.55 a bushel, after the USDA data showed record low sowings, potentially compounding a shortage caused by disrupted spring planting season in Canada.

Rice was one of the few losers on the day, shedding 3.3% to $9.44 per hundredweight, the lowest since October 2006.

But then its US sowings were looking more generous, up 12% at 3.51m acres, with higher sowings "in all rice-producing States except California, and record highs� in Arkansas and Missouri", the USDA said.

Sideways soy

And then there were soybeans, which have plodded resolutely sideways all month, even as grains have gyrated around Canada's woes, and continued to trudge crabwise on Wednesday.

A brief burst of excitement up to $9.73 a bushel for the July lot, the best since early May, crashed to leave the contract up 1.25 cents at $9.49 a bushel at the close.

And this despite USDA stocks data, as of June 1, which were well short of analyst forecasts.

But then, the acreage figure disappointed, showing a bigger rise than the market was prepared for.

"Bean planted acres were neutral to slightly bearish at 78.87m acres, versus an average estimate of 78.18m," Benson Quinn Commodities.

Indeed, the new crop November lot shed 1.0% to $9.02 � a bushel, falling at one point below $9 a bushel.

Paris jump 

The fireworks were seen across the Atlantic too, adding to growing investor concerns about a lack of rain, both in Europe and in Russia, where SovEcon warned of a potential 17m-tonne drop in the grain harvest.

Paris's November lot closed up a notable E5.00 at E145.75 a tonne, with its London peer adding �3.25 to �107.25 a tonne.

"Cash markets in Europe remain quiet, with harvest in key producing areas such as Germany expected to begin in the coming two to three weeks," Jaime Miralles at FCStone added.

Juice sweetens

Among softs, juice put in a standout performance, rising by 3.3% to 148.25 cents a pound in New York, and hitting 148.50 cents at one point, its best for three months, amid talk that fruit sizes may be smaller than traders have expected, hinting at a weak harvest.

Investors are also keeping an eye on Hurricane Alex, in case it takes a trek west, a potential disaster for the groves in Florida, America's biggest citrus state.

Also in New York, sugar put in its trademark volatile performance, with the best-traded October lot gaining 5.1% to 16.06 cents a pound amid gyrations attributed to technical factors linked to the expiry of the July lot, which closed above 18 cents a pound - the first time for the near-term lot in three months.

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