PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 08:25 GMT, Monday, 17th Sept 2012, by Agrimoney.com
Morning markets: ag prices ease, as markets' QE3 boost wanes

Was that it?

The boost to markets from the latest round of economy-boosting US monetary easing, so-called QE3, showed signs of wearing off on Monday.

The dollar edged marginally higher, after on Friday touching its lowest against a basket of currencies since February over fears that QE3 might stoke inflation and debase the US currency a touch.

Shares got off to a soft start in Europe, dropping 0.3% in London in opening deals, after a lacklustre performance in Asia, where they fell 2.1% in Shanghai. Wall Street shares are expected to open lower too.

And the likes of copper and crude eased as well.

Soft cotton

The softer mood was evident on agricultural commodity markets too, where cotton, which as an industrial commodity tends to be more vulnerable to the broader market mood than food crops, shed 0.8% to 75.29 cents a pound for New York's benchmark December lot as of 09:15 UK time (04:15 New York time, 03:15 Chicago time).

"The Fed's QE3 plan and the associated dollar weakness is the main factor currently supporting cotton prices," Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said. So when the dollar rises…

And in Chicago, soybeans were particularly weak, with the spot November contract dropping 1.6% to $17.11 ¼ a bushel.

But then investors had extra reasons to sell down positions on the oilseed.

'Elevators are filling quickly'

Sure, longer-term price prospects for the oilseed look upbeat, a factor the US Department of Agriculture itself acknowledged last week.

But the USDA also highlighted the pressure to near-term values from harvest, which in ramping up supplies temporarily swings some market power back to buyers.

And, indeed, weekend weather was favourable for US harvesting, being largely dry in main growing areas, except light rains in the eastern Corn Belt, so allowing speed harvesting.

Furthermore, there is talk of better-than-expected yields in, particularly, northern areas too.

In the northern soybean harvest, "yields have been reported above average, and many elevators are filling quickly and going cash only with harvest expected to be near 10% complete in Monday's crop progress report", Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn Commodities said.

The USDA will after the market closes unveil its latest crop progress briefing, showing crop condition and progress of historically-early corn and soybean harvests.

'Significant rains'

As an extra pressure on soybeans, forecasts are looking better for Brazil too, where dry weather has looked a threat to sowings in central areas, including the top growing state of Mato Grosso, and with the (legally enforced) sowing window having opened on Saturday.

While early in the week, rains will stick to Paraguay, Uruguay, parts of Argentina and southern Brazil, it will head further north "for the first time in several weeks in the six-to-10 day" outlook, WxRisk.com said.

"This feature will bring significant rains to Parana Sao Paulo southern Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and western Mato Grosso," the weather service said.

"Right now the coverage looks to range anywhere from 0.50-2.00 inches with 60% coverage."

'Barely enough to settle the dust'

Weather played a part in a weak start by wheat too, in bringing rain to some southern US areas starting winter wheat sowings.

Texas, for instance, a hard red winter wheat-growing state and parts of Oklahoma received some "heavy showers", WxRisk.com said.

OK the concerns over Australia's crop, highlighted by comments by Australia & New Zealand Bank to Agrimoney.com on Friday, have not passed.

"Last week's rainfall was barely enough to settle the dust for much of Australia's grain belt," Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

"And forecast rainfall this week also appears light, less than 5mm, for most regions."

And data on Monday showed Australia's wheat stocks running down faster than had been expected, it still remaining comfortable.

Chicago wheat for December dropped 1.0% to $9.27 ¼ a bushel, retracing some of its strong gains of the last session.

Compromised charts

The grain did not get any help from corn either, which dropped 1.0% to $7.74 a bushel for the December contract, now the spot lot too following the expiry of Chicago September contracts.

US corn's own harvest is expected to have seen decent progress over the weekend, and the past week, while latest US export and ethanol production data have shown weakened demand.

And the grain's technical factors have not improved either, with the December lot standing below its 10-, 20- and 50-day moving averages.

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