Will the rally in grains and oilseeds, spurred by US Department of Agriculture crop estimate revisions, find legs?
Tuesday is often, famously, a day of reversals in Chicago, implying negative pressure on corn and soybeans, after their gains in the last session on USDA downgrades to estimates for domestic yields of both crops.
And further USDA data released overnight, showing the condition of both corn and soybean crops stable at 64% rated "good" or "excellent", increased the likelihood of a fallback.
The data "might be enough to trigger 'turnaround Tuesday' profit-taking," Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
"But I suspect if we maintain a drier forecast into the end of August, the market should finish the week higher."
Dryness to last?
Indeed, dryness in the western Corn Belt took a higher profile after the USDA on Monday highlighted it as it lowered its corn and soybean yield forecasts.
(The former, especially, to 154.4 bushels per acre was deemed a surprise, with many commentators of late lifting forecasts above 160 bushels per acre.)
And the latest run of the European model overnight was hardly encouraging, seeing that over the next five days "all the rain remains over the south eastern coast and the Gulf coast and into much of Oklahoma and western Kansas", David Tolleris at WxRisk.com said.
"The central and upper Plains and all of the Midwest are dry."
Next week, shows heavy storms over some of the central Plains, but "these rains do not get into Missouri or Iowa, and the rest of the eastern Corn Belt stays dry," Mr Tolleris said.
And in the 11-to-15 day outlook, "the deep persistent trough in the jet stream over the eastern third of the country is gone and the pattern is being replaced by a more seasonal mid-August pattern.
"This new pattern is not what I would call a hot pattern for mid / late August, but it clearly is strong enough to bring about seasonal temperatures."
'Will be revised up'
That did not prevent scepticism over Monday's yield revisions, particularly in corn.
RJ O'Brien, after the USDA report, estimated the corn yield of 157.5 bushels per acre, flagging a "strong correlation between cool August temperatures and better-than-expected corn yields"
The Chicago-based broker also noted that of the last 10 times that the USDA has, in its August Wasde crop report, cut its estimate for the domestic corn yield, in six of them that figure was revised back upwards by the end of the season.
And Deutsche Bank, which on Monday lifted its corn yield forecast to 160.8 bushels per acre, restated that "crop potential is strong.
"We believe that the corn yield will be revised up in subsequent Wasde reports," the bank said.
'Large speculative short position'
However, another broker reminded that "it is important to note that the managed money has a very large speculative short position in corn", a record net short in fact.
"Will the USDA's yield estimate cause them to reduce their position? If they decide to liquidate their shorts it could provide some underlying support for corn over the next two weeks."
And, after all, technically the last session showed a technical buy sign for December corn futures, with their recovery from a multi-year low to close substantially higher.
"This key reversal may also be a reason for the market to find a short-covering rally."
'Carryout remains ominous'
Certainly, December corn managed to extend gains, adding 0.6% to $4.66 ¾ a bushel as of 09:45 UK time (03:45 Chicago time), despite plenty of doubts over how long this upswing can last.
"The Wasde report should provide support near recent lows in the near term," Benson Quinn Commodities said.
"However, the projected carryout remains ominous so, outside of some additional short-covering, this is still a market that likely remains under pressure in the long run."
Soybeans - over which there are fewer questions about the Wasde revision, but in which hedge funds have fewer shorts to cover - gained 0.9% to $12.36 ½ a bushel.
Fall in stocks to use
In fact, these performances were, unlike the last session, insufficient to keep the row crops ahead of wheat, which also gained 0.9% to $6.41 a bushel in Chicago for September delivery.
Wheat came off less positively from the Wasde, in that the world production forecast was lifted by 7.6m tonnes to a record high of 705.4m tonnes.
Still, as Mark Welch at Texas A&M University pointed out "world wheat use increased by 6.9m tonnes resulting in a net increase in world wheat ending stocks of 0.6m tonnes.
"But with increased consumption, the days on hand at the end of the marketing year went down from an 89.9-day supply to 89.3 days."
Tighter supplies infer higher prices.
While Ukraine farm officials on Tuesday said that domestic wheat harvest was nearly complete at 22.9m tonnes, ahead of the USDA figure upgraded to 21.5m tonnes in the Wasde, their estimate was bunker weight.
Factoring out losses to drying and cleaning the grain (typically some 7% loss) take the figure a little under the Wasde number.
A FranceAgriMer upgrade in the estimate for the domestic wheat crop to more than 36m tonnes had also already been factored in, following a comparable upgrade by the French farm ministry last week.
Among soft commodities, cotton prices extended their rally too, a bit, on Wasde revisions, with New York's December lot edging 0.2% higher to 90.26 cents a pound.
The Wasde surprised investors by cutting expectations for both US and global stocks of the fibre as of the close of 2013-14.
As an extra fillip for prices, the crop progress report overnight showed a deterioration in US cotton by 2 points to 43% in the proportion rated "good" or "excellent".
Raw sugar prolonged its rally too, adding 0.7% to 17.28 cents a pound for October delivery, with the close to the last session above 17.00 cents a pound - the first such finish in three months – boosting the sweetener's technical appeal.