08:40 GMT, Thursday, 26th August 2010, by Agrimoney.com
Morning markets: crops revive, despite weak US export hopes

Crops got off to a brighter start, amid signs that the latest storm in external markets was subsiding, and thoughts that wheat's sell-off in the last session had been overdone.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei share index staged some recovery from 16-month lows, adding 0.7%, while the dollar weakened 0.3% against a basket of currencies too, in what was seen as a sign of a diminishing clamour for safety.

Oil posted small gains to $72.69 a barrel, as of 07:10 GMT (08:10 UK time).

This was some help to the mood in Asian trading hours for Chicago grains.

But wheat's gain of 1.5% to $6.57 � a bushel for September delivery, 1.4% higher to $6.90 a bushel for December, also owed something to residual upbeat sentiment.

Funds to return?

At US-based Benson Quinn Commodities, Dave Lehl highlighted "the possibility of bullish news sending funds in buying Chicago", and indeed how this appeared to be preventing Kansas and Minneapolis contracts regaining the premium over Chicago peers that might be expected.

While the last session's 4% thumping had left wheat "technically weak, we are still above last weeks lows", he said.

He added: "There should still be areas of support on Russian fall planting conditions and weather uncertainty."

In Singapore, Phillip Futures said that Chicago wheat "might have some upside after the consecutive sell-off in the past two sessions".

Ukraine was, after postponing again a decision on export quotas, maintaining de facto export restrictions, while investors were continuing to speculate on considerable grain imports to Russia, the broker said.

Export data 

Whether wheat can hang on to gains may depend on US export data due later, for which investors have lowered their aim (one reason, indeed, behind the sell-off in the last session).

Weekly export sales are expected to fall to about 75,000-900,000 tonnes, from 1.4m tonnes last times.

Trade estimates have been "falling sharply from last couple weeks on basis of fewer US Department of Agriculture daily announcements, as importers have covered most of nearby needs and export terminals have reached capacity into early November by some estimates", Benson Quinn said.

Indeed, declines are expected too for corn, for which export sales are expected to fall to 1.0m-1.2m tonnes from 2.9m tonnes, and soybeans, with trade of 900,000-1.0m tonnes expected, from 2.2m tonnes in last week's data.

Yield concerns 

Still, corn was 1.2% higher at $4.09 � a bushel in Chicago, lifted in part by the reduced pressure on wheat, as well as growing thoughts that the US crop may not be as good as some investors had expected.

"The whole key for corn and soybeans is 'what is production this year?' It doesn't take much to bring the balance sheet down to very tight levels for corn," Mike Mawdsley at US broker Market 1 said.

Phillip Futures said: "End user demand continues to look good, and there are yield uncertainties."

Indeed, current trade expectations are for a crop of 163.7 bushels per acre, compared with the 165.0 bushels per acre that the USDA is forecasting.

Oils rebound 

For soybeans, investors are currently expecting a yield of 43.7 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels per acre lower than the USDA estimate.

Although, as Philip said, "seasonal pressure from the approaching harvest might continue to weigh on prices", yield concerns coupled with a better external signs helped keep Chicago's September contract up 0.7% at $10.07 � a bushel, with the November lot added the same to $10.06 � a bushel.

Not only were soybeans a touch higher on the Dalian market in China, the world's biggest importer of the oilseed, but soyoil and other vegetable oils too, pulling out of a downswing blamed talk that Beijing would release some of its stocks to cool domestic prices.

Soyoil was 0.3% higher on the Dalian and 0.7% up at 39.43 cents a pound in Chicago.

In Kuala Lumpur, rival vegetable oil palm oil gained 1.0% to 2,510 ringgit a tonne, although many traders warned that technical factors were playing a large part, flagging profit-taking by holders of short positions enriched by the tumble of the past two weeks.

EXTRA OPTIONS
PRINTABLE VERSION
EMAIL TO A FRIEND
RSS FEEDS
RELATED ARTICLES
Evening markets: two-tier market favours EU wheat over US
EXTERNAL LINKS
Agriculture Market News
Cocoa Market News
Coffee Market News
Corn Market News
Cotton Market News
Dairy Market News
Grain Market News
Soybean Market News
Sugar Market News
Wheat Market News