PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 08:04 GMT, Monday, 9th Jul 2012, by Agrimoney.com
Morning markets: dryish US outlook reignites rally in grains

So the weather has turned milder in the Midwest, but not by enough to take the heat out of the grains market.

Many financial markets made a poor start to the week, sapped by Friday's poor US jobs figure, although

A better-than-expected Chinese inflation figure for June, of 2.2% compared with 3.0% in May, was also open to negative interpretation, in potentially a result of a fast-slowing economy.

Certainly, Wen Jiabao, China's premier, said on Sunday that pressure on the country's economy is still "relatively large".

Shanghai stocks stood 2.4% lower in late deals, while Tokyo shares closed down 1.4%, Seoul stocks 1.2% and Sydney shares down 1.0%.

Weather outlook

But grains, again, managed to escape a soaking, protected by concerns over the damage that drought and heat have done to crops, and fears that a break in the weather might not be as benign as peviously billed.

In fact, forecasters have promised cooler temperatures - after another weekend of hot temperatures expected to ensure a further fall in US official weekly crop ratings, due late on Monday.

However, as regards closing the Midwest moisture deficit, "There is some good news and some not good news", David Tolleris at WxRisk.com said.

"The good news is that the southern portions of the eastern Corn Belt and southern Missouri will see good rains over the next five days," he said.

"But to the north the central and northern eastern Corn Belt and most of the western Corn Belt will see lower temperatures and a lot less rain."

Heat to return?

At ABN Amro, analyst Charlie Sernatinger put it so: "The good news for this week is that temperatures are due to slip back from last week's record readings.

"The bad news is that all of the rain forecast is for the southern third of the nation."

And, mid-month, models show "the heat tries to make a comeback", Mr Tolleris said.

Besides, at Lynnette Tan at Phillip Futures said, the cooler temperatures for now "may be too late to reverse the damage done to the withering corn crops".

Russian floods

Furthermore, this was not the only weather situation the grains market had to factor in.

Another is the violent breaking of a dry spell in southern Russia, which has caused flooding which has killed at least 170 people, and disrupted shipments out of the port of Novorossiysk.

More rains are due today and tomorrow.

"Recent flooding may have affected already harvested winter wheat where storage terminals were flooded as well as the remaining unharvested winter crops as well as the corn and sunflower crops," Rory Deverell at FCStone said.

Meanwhile, in France and the UK, further rain is also due "through to the midweek to maintain the disease and toxin concerns" in crops suffering from excessive moisture.

Prices soar

The impact of all this in Chicago was to send December corn futures flying to a contract high of $7.19 a bushel as of 09:00 UK time (03:00 Chicago time), while the thinly-traded July contract added 2.5% to $7.62 a bushel.

In soybeans, the November contract hit a contract high of $15.45 ¾ a bushel, before easing to $15.44 ¼ a bushel.

And September wheat added 2.3% to $8.24 ½ a bushel.

"Wheat would certainly seem to have hit prices higher than fundamentals would suggest, but if corn keeps going higher, so will wheat," Mike Mawdsley at Market 1 said.

'Temporary price spike'

Elsewhere, the weather fears helped Kuala Lumpur palm oil, in threatening supplies of rival vegetable oil soyoil.

The September lot added 1.0% to 3,162 ringgit a tonne, with the shortfall in India's monsoon rains also adding power to bulls' elbows, in signalling a potential boost to vegetable oil imports from an already-large buyer.

But Tokyo rubber took its cue from the macroeconomic mood, falling 2.4% to 249.00 yen a kilogramme.

In New York, raw sugar for October soared 0.5% to 22.36 cents a pound, boosted by the rain slowing Brazil's cane harvest, and sugar logistics.

Phillip Futures' Lynette Tan said: "Investors and traders in the sugar market are betting on temporary price spike due to temporary supply disruptions, as more news of delayed harvesting, delayed loading and delayed crushing hit the markets.

"The extra moisture could also potentially affect sugar yield."

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