PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 09:31 GMT, Friday, 15th Mar 2013, by Agrimoney.com
Morning markets: Friday opens for ags with reversal theme

It is equities which look best placed to steal the limelight on Friday.

The S&P 500, the US benchmark share index, just needs to add two points to close at its highest ever level, beating the 1,565 recorded in October 2007 (and up from the March 2009 low of 666).

Many foreign markets were doing their bit to help, with Tokyo stocks closing up 1.5%, and Shanghai stocks up 0.4%, although European stocks opened mixed.

"New highs in equity markets remind everyone that stocks are the darling of asset class managers - not commodities and especially not the grains until or unless a legitimate weather threat emerges," Richard Feltes at RJ O'Brien said.

Profit-taking…

For those investors still left in agricultural commodities, who haven't turned tail and fuelled shares' relentless rise of 2013, the questions were slightly more mundane

Like, could wheat manage a seventh successive day of headway, cotton build on its first close above 90 cents a pound since April, or soybeans manage their first headway since Monday?

In fact, there was a bit of a theme of "the last shall be first" on agricultural commodity markets, with the laggards finding buyers, and the leaders sellers, as often happens on a Friday, as investors book profits before the weekend.

Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said, thinking of wheat: "I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit-taking on a Friday after a nice move higher this week."

(… if only profit-taking to raise cash for moving into equities, of course.)

'Lack of good alternatives'

That temptation overpowered the underlying theme that, according to Mr Feltes, "ag markets continue to be responsive to demand, and on that front wheat is leading the pack".

The strong weekly US wheat export data on Thursday, the best for two years, are one factor in that equation.

At Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Luke Mathews said: "Traders are encouraged that the 10-15% slide in US wheat prices during February, which resulted in US wheat becoming the cheapest in the world, has uncovered strong demand."

Benson Quinn's Mr Henry said that there was also "talk that Brazil has purchased some cargos of US hard red winter wheat and Iran may secure a couple of cargos of hard red winter wheat".

At Phillip Futures, Joyce Liu flagged a "lack of good or potential alternatives" to US supplies, with Russia revealing plans to buy some 6m tonnes from the domestic market this summer, "greatly reducing the wheat available for exports".

"India, although now willing to sell wheat in the international market, has refused to lower its prices to levels compatible and competitive with the international market," Ms Liu said.

'$20 a tonne under corn'

Furthermore, in the US itself, there appear continuing signs of wheat replacing corn, given its relative cheapness.

There was the late cancellation of 545 soft red winter wheat receipts in Toledo, continued talk of livestock feeders ditching Argentine corn imports in place of domestic wheat.

RJ O'Brien's Mr Feltes said: "We look for ongoing pressure to substitute wheat for feed grains in coming months - especially if an initially cool spring weather pattern triggers even minor corn planting delays."

A contact "reports wheat delivered into the Texas Panhandle is trading $20 a tonne under corn amid reports that some feedyards are moving toward a 50:50 corn:wheat ration", he added.

Spread betting

Still, long-term, of course, "the bigger picture still remains bearish as improving crop weather in the US remain the biggest factor", Ms Liu said.

And with investors in the mood to book profits, May wheat, on its first day in the spot position, following the expiry of the March lot, fell 0.8% to $7.18 ¾ a bushel as of 09:30 UK time (04:30 Chicago time).

And that was little help to corn either, although the grain does continue to gain support from the 100m-bushel upgrade a week ago by the US Department of Agriculture to estimates for domestic livestock feeding.

The May contract shed a modest 0.3% to $7.14 ¼ a bushel, nearly regaining a premium over wheat, although Ms Liu urged investors to watch that relationship.

In 2011-12, "when wheat traded at a discount to corn for almost a year, the spread narrowed very quickly each time it turned negative," she said.

"Hence, even if wheat prices were to trade below corn for another one-to-two months, as is the case suggested by fundamental factors, there may be ample opportunity for spread trading," and exploiting sharp reversals, as indeed happened in the last session.

Argentine barn doors shut?

It was soybeans which fared best this time in Chicago, adding 0.3% to $14.39 ¾ a bushel for May, managing to stay above a confluence of moving averages just below, including the 75-day, 100-day and 200-day lines.

While there is talk about China moving orders from Brazil, whose exports are shrouded in logistical hiccups, to Argentina, that may not offer more than a temporary solution, and potentially shift buying pressure back to the US.

Argentina's economic problems, notably rising inflation and the threat of devaluation, is encouraging its growers to stockpile crops, meaning potential supply issues here to.

"The Argentine soybean harvest is proceeding at a decent clip, but the exporter may have an issue with ownership," Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn said.

"Producers have been reluctant sellers as sales are heavily taxed and ownership can be loosely viewed as a hedge against inflation.

"The trade estimates that 10 to 15% of Argentina's new crop production has been marketed by producers. Ordinarily, this figure would be closer to 30 to 35%."

Firm in Asia

As an extra support too, soy in China, the top soybean importing country, gained ground, adding 1.3% to 4,768 yuan a tonne for the bean itself on the Dalian exchange, for September delivery.

September soymeal gained 0.2% to 3,288 yuan a tonne, and soyoil 1.4% to 8,136 yuan a tonne.

Elsewhere in the oilseeds complex even Kuala Lumpur palm oil managed a better day rising 1.7% from the last session's two-month low to stand at 2,404 ringgit a tonne.

Data from cargo surveyor showing a small rise, of 0.2%, in Malaysian palm exports so far this month steadied nerves and encouraged bargain hunting.

Oilseeds may later on move to the tune of monthly data on the US soybean crush from the National Oilseed Processors Association, expected to come in at about 140m bushels.

Cotton eases

Among soft commodities, the reversal theme sent New York cotton for May 0.2% lower to 90.68 cent a pound.

And this despite talk that China is to issue extra cotton import quotas for mills who are having trouble finding the fibre domestically at reasonable rates, and so losing competitiveness to foreign rivals.

While China has oodles of cotton in store, it has been bought at higher prices, and is unavailable at current world prices.

Still, there is some sense of vertigo over New York futures up more than 20% already in 2013, at their highest levels since April.

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