PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 09:01 GMT, Monday, 18th Feb 2013, by Agrimoney.com
Morning markets: palm oil gains boost from Malaysia exports

As the world's biggest economy takes a holiday, the second largest returns from one.

Indeed, the reopening of China after the week-long lunar new year celebrations has been keenly awaited by agricultural commodity bulls, bringing a large buyer of crops such as cotton, rubber and soybeans back into the market.

How big will China's appetite be, with the festivities behind it, and where will it source from?

For soybeans, there is an idea that, with Brazil's export supplies beginning to come on tap in earnest from its recently-started harvest, Chinese buyers will prefer South America to the US for orders for the next few months.

'The key to price direction'

"New China demand will hold key to the week's price direction," Kim Rugel at US broker Benson Quinn Commodities said.

"New demand even purchases from South America will offer support while lack of reported sales will pressure the markets."

There was little in early news on Monday (when US markets are closed for President's Day) to give investors clues either way.

What was gained from Chinese futures market looked neutral.

The Dalian's best-traded September soybean contract fell 1.1% to 4,782 yuan a tonne, while the May lot eased 0.8%, proving more resilient that Chicago's March contract, which fell 1.8% last week while Chinese markets were closed (although this comparison does not take account of currency tweaks).

Dalian soymeal for September dropped 2.7%, and the May contract 0.6%, also outperforming Chicago soymeal for March, which fell 3.1%.

But soyoil fared better in Chicago, where it edged higher last week by 0.4%, than on the Dalian, where it lost 1.2% for September delivery, to 8,646 yuan a tonne, and 1.0% for May delivery.

'Buoyant palm oil'

Indeed, there was something of a theme of firm vegetable oils on Monday, with palm oil for May up 1.2% at 2,535 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur as of 09:00 UK time.

"The edible oil was buoyant after cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported an 18.1% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of February from a month ago," Ker Chung Yang at Phillip Futures, the Singapore-based broker, said.

Rival cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance put the figure at 13.6%.

That has helped counter market disappointment at the Malaysian government's decision to lift its crude palm oil export tax for March to 4.5%, from effectively 0% for the first two months of 2013.

The extent of Malaysian inventories, which hit a record in December, and a relatively slow pace of exports, sent palm oil prices to a two-year low towards the end of 2012, a worry to the country given the importance of the vegetable oil to its rural economy.

Rubber loses bounce

However, another major Chinese import, rubber, could not in Tokyo's late session hang on gains of the previous one, attributed to a weakening of the yen, so making yen-denominate exports that much more affordable.

Rubber for July dropped 0.3% to 323.30 yen a kilogramme, with Mr Ker noting the temptation among traders to take profits.

This, despite a further drop in the yen on Monday, was especially tempting given a fall in Shanghai rubber futures, which for September delivery dropped 3.1% to 26,215 yen a tonne.

Share markets

Tokyo shares did better at holding on to bullish sentiment, boosted by the yen's decline, which followed a statement on Friday from the G20 meeting which failed to single out the country for criticism over what some might term "competitive devaluation of the yen".

(This devaluation, which favours Japan's important exports, does follow a long spell when the currency has, on some measures, been overvalued.)

Tokyo stocks closed up 2.1% at within 1% of a four-year high.

However, without the prospect of US trading today stocks struggled for direction in Europe, easing 0.2% in London in early deals and 0.3% in Paris, but gaining 0.1% in Frankfurt,

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