The ideas that the
latest US Wasde crop report was supportive for grain and oilseed prices
continued to pour in on Friday.
"In our view the
report was bullish for corn prices,
supportive for wheat and neutral for
oilseeds," if bearish for cotton,
Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
"This report
reinforces that global feed grain supplies are critically tight and that prices
must remain strong to ration demand. Consumers cannot afford any production
issues over the coming year."
In Paris, Agritel
said: "The report confirmed the tightness of commodities balances."
That was in line
with the comment from brokers on Thursday after the Wasde, the benchmark US
Department of Agriculture crop report, cut estimates for US (and world) corn stocks wafer thin, and reduced estimate for domestic wheat inventories too.
The estimate for soybean stocks, while raised a touch,
remained uncomfortably tight.
Back to selling
But if investor
action speaks louder than analysts' words.
And there wasn't a
lot of it, in terms of buying activity, on Friday.
All eyes were on corn, after its 5% jump in the last
session, near limit-up, was seen a sign of it regaining market leadership in
Chicago - and, many bulls hoped - racing away to the levels of $9 a bushel
which were commonplace thinking earlier in the summer, as the worst US drought
in more than 50 years ravaged the US crop.
However, instead,
investors reverted to the pattern of selling down their net long holding which
has marked the last couple of months or so.
'Cautious going forward'
Indeed, just as
funds appear to have viewed the last jump in prices - two weeks ago, on data
showing surprisingly weak US corn inventories at the close of 2012-13 – as an
opportunity to take profits, the latest jump seemed to being taken in the same
light.
Corn for December
dropped 0.8% to $7.67 ¼ a bushel as of 09:20 UK time (03:20 Chicago time),
losing on a fraction of its gains in the last session, but losing ground all
the same.
The central concern
over whether higher prices are justified is whether enough users will pay up.
As Societe Generale
said soon after the Wasde was released, while the tightness of corn supplies
"certainly seems bullish for prices, we would be cautious going forward, given
the demand destruction seen so far".
Data later
More will be known
on demand, in terms of exports, later on, when the USDA unveils its weekly
export sales data, delayed a day by the Columbus Day holiday on Monday.
Not that a huge
figure is expected, given the competition from South America that the USDA has
acknowledged on Thursday in cutting its forecast for US corn shipments in
2012-13 to a 38-year low.
South Korea's
largest feed group, Nonghyup Feed, did its best to undermine confidence on
Friday by cancelling tenders for 210,000 tonnes of corn and 70,000 tonnes of
feed wheat, citing high prices.
Wheat falls
Indeed, with corn
prices sagging, wheat struggled too,
given that many saw it coming off in second place in bullishness from the
Wasde, with estimates for world stocks not cut as significantly as many had
hoped.
That said, the USDA
data included an estimate for the Australian crop which, at 23.0m tonnes, is
above that of other observers, and had an 11.5m-tonne estimate for Argentina
questioned soon after.
In Argentine
itself, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegged the crop at 10.1m tonnes.
Wheat for December
fell 1.0% to $8.76¾ a bushel.
'Needs a weather scare'
And with the grains
weakened, soybeans dropped too, with
the oilseed, in the Wasde, relying on larger demand to mop up a
less-bad-than-feared US harvest.
At Benson Quinn
Commodities, Kim Rugel noted that "it was the demand numbers and tight US
carryout that rallied trade" in the last session.
"Globally, data is
not so bullish with world ending stocks increased 4.5m tonnes to 57.6m tonnes.
This capped Thursday's gains and will offer resistance as South American
planting gets under way.
Overall, the "data
keeps beans in sideways range from $15 a bushel to $17 a bushel, with the
market needing a weather scare to rally above $16 a bushel".
With Friday not
bringing a weather scare yet, Chicago's November soybean contract dropped 1.2%
to $15.30 ½ a bushel.
Cotton recovers
An easier tone
married with some more negative feeling abroad on commodities market too, with
copper easing in London in early deals, amid nerves ahead of Chinese trade data
due over teh weekend.
These are much
watched by investors in agricultural, as well as industrial, commodities, with
China the top buyer of the likes of cotton,
rubber and soybeans.
Indeed, if there
was a bigger surprise on Friday, it was that cotton staged a rebound despite
this concern, and a Wasde report seen universally as bearish for the fibre, in
raising ideas of world stocks to a still-higher record high, equivalent to
nearly nine months' use.
Maybe ample plus
2.6m bales is still ample…
Cotton for December
added 0.7% to 71.18 cents a pound in New York, where raw sugar managed to regain some composure after its hefty fall of
the last session, on talk of buyers cancelling cargoes and lower imports.
"Export demand for
sugar will likely see a large drop in 2012-13 with Chinese imports expected to
be halved amidst rising domestic output, high inventory and slowing economy,"
Lynette Tan at Phillip Futures said.
The March contract
recovered 0.2% to 20.50 cents a pound.