continued to bounce back from oversold conditions ahead of the long holiday
weekend, helped by flooding Argentina, while wheat futures edged lower, with
concerns over the slow pace of exports.
There are ideas that all the bearish news has been factored
into the soybean market, and now it is time to start worrying about the
potential for weather disruption.
"Everything is bearish," said Steve Georgy, at Allandale. "But
that's when we need to be a bit cautious about what's happening next."
Flooding fears in
"Some flooding taking place in Argentina, the market is
aware of this and is actively watching how much worse it gets," said Ridge
Erdmann, at CHS Hedging.
But there whether the situation is actually a threat to
yields remains the subject of some debate.
"The firm tone in the
beans is tied to the oversold conditions and the funds having liquidated their
long position," said Brian Henry, at Benson Quinn Commodities.
"There is again mention of the wet conditions that have
plagued areas of Argentina," Mr Henry.
But he noted that the flooding is now unlikely to get worse.
"The current forecast for the bulk of Argentina looks favourable for better
Conditions to get
"Rain lingered across northern and eastern Buenos Aires and
far southern Santa Fe on Monday, but dry weather has prevailed across Argentina
since," said Kyle Tapley, at MDA Weather Services.
"The drier weather is allowing wetness to slowly ease and
corn and soybean harvesting to resume," Mr Tapley said.
"Rainfall will return to the region during the first half of
next week, but the most significant rainfall should favour northern areas."
"This should limit the potential for any additional significant
harvest delays in southern Argentina," said Mr Tapley.
And weather is expected dry from the middle of next week,
out till the end of the fifteen day forecast.
Soybean sales holding
The US Department of Agriculture reported soybean export
sales came in at 402,000 tonnes, on the bottom end of analyst expectations.
But given how late it is in the season, export sales are
still quite strong.
May soybean futures were up 0.9% in mid-day deals, at $9.56 ½
Corn export sales
were some 738,000 tonnes, just below the bottom end of the expected range.
May corn futures were up 0.6%, at $3.71 ¼ a bushel.
Slow wheat shipments
sales were some 422,000 tones, at the upper end of analyst expectations.
But attention is more focused on the slow pace of shipments.
"We are now more closely monitoring shipments and how they
are matching to pace needed to reach USDA exports," said Benson Quinn.
"There are only eight weeks left in the wheat marketing year
and shipments once again missed pace to reach USDA estimates and makes one
wonder why USDA raised hard red winter wheat exports in Tuesday's wasde report."
May Chicago wheat futures were down 0.6% in mid-day deals,
down $4.30 ½ a bushel.
Cocoa makes new lows
slumped to new four-week lows, extending losses of the previous session on
signs that demand remains sluggish despite low prices.
"During the first quarter, cocoa grinding in Europe rose by
only 1.1% year on year," noted Commerzbank.
"A marked drop of 7.7% in grinding in Germany had a major impact on
"This decline was due to one of the major grinders becoming
insolvent and having to close down most of its production facilities,"
Confectionary manufacturer Barry Callebaut separately reported
2.1% decline in the global market for chocolate confectionary in the six months
"The slump in prices of almost 40% since last summer has not
yet therefore led to demand for cocoa picking up again," Commerzbank said.
July New York cocoa futures were down 2.5%, at $1,917 a
tonne, in early afternoon deals, at a four-year low.
And May futures, which are less traded, actually broke
recent lows to an eight-year low, down 3.3%, at $1,878.