fell further on Thursday, after an attempted rally collapsed in a wave of selling
in the previous session, as speculators see no reason to give up short positions
given an unthreatening outlook in the US Plains.
"Poor weekly export Sales—when compared with newswire
estimates—set the tone in the grains and soybeans today; the clear leader to
the downside once again today is the wheat," said Mike Zuzulo, at Global
As a matter of fact, wheat actually came in toward the upper
end of expectations in the weekly USDA export sales data, at 414,000 tonnes,
while it was soybeans and corn which missed expectations.
But CRM AgriCommodities that the decent sales in wheat were "not
enough to lend support to the US wheat complex with unthreatening weather
outlook across the Plains".
Fresh selling in
"Wheat has completely collapsed again," said Darrell
Holaday, at Country Futures.
Mr Holaday said it was "hard to pinpoint the exact cause of
the renewed weakness," but he pointed out that given the nearing expiry of the
May contract, and given the nearing new-crop, "there could easily be a large amount
of wheat delivered on the futures contracts".
May Chicago wheat futures finished down 3.0%, at $4.06 ¼ a
EU prices also down
Wheat prices in Paris also eased, despite weather uncertainty.
"Despite solid EU wheat exports relative to last year's poor
harvest, Euronext wheat closed lower for a second consecutive day as the euro
reached its highest in more than 3 weeks against the US Dollar, making the
European origin less competitive on the export market," said CRM.
But it noted that weather risks remain. "North East France
and Germany will experience below freezing temperatures tonight and tomorrow
although greater risks lie in the persistent dry conditions observed across
Western Europe," CRM said.
March Paris wheat futures finished down 0.6%, at E163.50.
weather in Argentina
Corn and soybeans came under additional pressure
from the good weather outlook in South America.
"Dry weather has prevailed across most of the major corn and
soybean areas in Argentina over the past week, with rains limited to northern
Santa Fe and Entre Rios," said Kyle Taply, at MDA Weather Services.
"The dry weather in most areas has allowed wetness to ease
across La Pampa and Buenos Aires and has also allowed corn and soybean
harvesting to make much better progress," Mr Tapley said.
"The dry weather should continue through Saturday. Scattered
and mostly light showers are expected Sunday through Tuesday, but dry weather
will return for the middle and end of next week."
"The below normal rainfall in the major growing areas of
Argentina over the next 10 days should allow wetness to ease further and will
allow corn and soybean harvesting to progress well."
Conditions are also improving in Brazil, with rain expected
to increase conditions for the second-crop corn harvest.
"Showers will favor all of the safrinha corn belt today and
tomorrow, improving conditions for development of the crop, although the rains
will not completely replenish soil moisture in central and eastern Mato Grosso
and northern Goias," said Mr Tapley.
"Drier weather will return to most of Brazil this weekend,
but another round of rainfall is expected next Tuesday through Thursday, which
should favour again benefit the safrinha corn crop," he said. "Temperatures
should remain favourable for the crop as well."
May corn futures finished down 1.1%, at $3.57 ¾ a bushel.
Farmers hold onto
But soybeans remain supported by slow farmers selling in
"What has supported soybeans on recent price breaks is that
the South American producer quits moving cash product on price breaks," said Mr
"There will be many that will hold on pricing and wait for a
problem in the US crop."
May soybean futures finished down 0.4%, at $9.46 ¾ a bushel.
Cocoa finds new
its rapid sell-off, in a wave of technical selling, to new nine-and-a-half-year
lows, with little supportive on the fundamental side either.
"The production this year could be a record in Ivory Coast and
is above last year in Ghana," said Jack Scoville, at Price Futures group.
"Both countries are experiencing moderate weather as rains
"The demand remains a question, with everyone expecting
continued weaker demand in Europe," Mr Scoville said.
"Ideas are that the US demand might be somewhat improved,
but no one has real confidence in those ideas."
July New York cocoa settled down 4.0%, at $1,799 a tonne.
Coffee futures also found new recent lows, on chart-based
July arabica futures
settled down 4.5%, at 134.30 cents a pound, after falling to 133.85 cents.
The falling arabica price will discourage roasters to start
ramping robusta use back up.
"This once again narrowing arbitrage is now becoming less of
an attractive factor for the many price sensitive roast and ground roasters who
have considered robusta coffees to be an opportunist discount component, within
their mostly arabica coffee blends," said trade house I&M Smith.
July robusta settled
down 2.3%, at $2,124 a tonne.