Warnings that a post-sowing drought may cut Ukraine's winter wheat harvest by up to 50% next year are "too pessimistic", with recent rains improving prospects, a leading consultancy has said.

Kiev-based UkrAgroConsult said that the winter crop in the Black Sea grain powerhouse had not suffered as badly as some observers had estimated, with 70% in "good" or "satisfactory" condition as of October 13.

"And now we have had rains in most areas," UkrAgroConsult analyst Liza Malyshko told Agrimoney.com.

"That will improve prospects for the 30% which was not in a satisfactory condition."

Reseeding prospects 

Even for those crops which are in poor condition, there is the prospect of reseeding with spring wheat next year.

The consultancy has put an outline estimate on next year's harvest of 17-18m tonnes, down at worst 15% on 2009 production

The 2010 forecast comprises about 16m tonnes of winter wheat and 1.8m tonnes of spring wheat.

Winter coming 

The comments follow continued concerns about a dearth of rainfall which deprived many crops of the early moisture needed to ensure they are in good enough condition to make it through the harsh Ukraine winter.

Association Ukrainian Agribusiness Club has pegged next year's wheat harvest at 13m-14m tonnes,

Mykola Vernytsky, director of ProAgro agriculture consultancy, said that the harvest of winter wheat could halve.

"Crops which have no sprouted yet will not sprout after these [recent] rains," he said last week.

The comments followed an estimate from Ivan Demchak, Ukraine's deputy farm minister, that only about half of winter grain sowings had sprouted, with about 30% in good condition.