Algeria and Iran, two of the world's biggest grains buyers, have dealt a blow to exporters by revealing that they are on track for bumper domestic crops.
Algeria - which typically imports some 5,000 tonnes of wheat, largely from France - said it was on track narrowly to beat last year's grains harvest of 6.1m tonnes, despite warnings from farmers over heavy rains.
Noureddine Kehal, the head of Algeria's state grain agency, pegged production at 6.2m tonnes, adding that he expected the country's bill for cereal imports to fall to $1.2bn this year.
Two years ago, Algeria spent $3.2bn on grains.
His comments come less than a week after Mohamed Alioui, the head of Algeria's farmers union, warned that recent rains had "dramatically affected" growers and would, with cold weather, drive grains production lower year on year.
Strong recovery
Meanwhile, Iran said that its wheat output would rebound to 15m tonnes this year, a figure higher than many analysts had forecast, after two seasons marred by drought.
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USDA forecasts for world wheat importers, 2010-11 (y-on-y change)
1: Egypt, 9.3m tonnes (unchanged)
2: Brazil, 6.3m tonnes (-3.1%)
3: EU, 6.0m tonnes (unchanged)
4: Indonesia, 5.8m tonnes (+5.5%)
5: Japan, 5.2m tonnes (-1.9%)
6: Algeria, 5.0m tonnes (unchanged)
18=: Iran, 2.0m tonnes (-33%) |
Iran's wheat imports hit a record 9.3m tonnes in 2008-09, reversing the country's brief interlude as an exporter, follow dry weather which damaged winter grain harvests.
However, the 2010-11 crop, for which harvest is in its early stages, has enjoyed plentiful winter rains and unusually warm weather, which has left crop development in many areas one month ahead of normal.
'More vigorous'
Indeed, the US Department of Agriculture, in a report earlier this month pegging Iran's wheat crop at 14.4m tonnes, said that the country was set for "both an earlier harvest and higher yields"
Satellite data had showed "general crop development to be much denser and more vigorous than last year".
Iranian farm ministry official Mohammad Mehdi Kaboli, unveiling the country's own crop forecast, said that farmers would require 4m tonnes of wheat for their own needs, leaving 11m tonnes for other purposes.
Iran said last month that it would export 2m tonnes of wheat to three Arab countries this month, ending a three-year period without foreign sales.
The announcements come as wheat exporters such as Australia, the European Union and Russia are, in the face of bumper inventories, striving for new export markets.
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