Oil World, for the second time in two weeks, raised its
estimate for the European Union rapeseed crop, after "positive harvest results"
lifted expectations for crops in both of the bloc's main producing countries.
The influential analysis group lifted by 800,000 tonnes to
19.0m tonnes its forecast for the world's biggest rapeseed crop, which suffered
earlier in the season from cold temperatures and a dry spring.
The upgrade reflected results from the initial harvest, and
improved weather which meant that, "in general, the crop outlook has brightened
in Western and Eastern Europe".
"The crop benefited from ample rainfall in May and June,
which raised the kernel size and weight," the German-based analysis group said.
"The recent change toward warmer and drier weather is
promoting the maturation and speeds up the harvest progress."
Prospects appeared particularly bright in Germany, which
last year lost to France the title of EU's top rapeseed producer, but where the
harvest was now "seen reaching approximately 4.9m-5.0m tonnes", up from a
previous estimate of 4.7m tonnes.
In France, the yield looked like hitting at least 3.4-3.5
tonnes per hectare, " implying a production of 5.4m-5.5m tonnes against 5.37m
tonnes achieved last year", Oil World said.
However, in the UK, the third-ranked producer, the harvest looked
like easing 100,000 tonnes from last year's record 2.7m tonnes, despite a rise
of 5% or so in plantings, although the impact of recent heavy rains was still
Crop consultancy Adas warned last week that, thanks to lodging caused by heavy rains, UK rapeseed yields "overall are not expected to be as high as recent years".
A 19.0m-tonne harvest would be 1.0m tonnes more than the US
Department of Agriculture is forecasting from the EU rapeseed harvest.
However, it would still be lower than the 2011 result, keeping
the crop on course for a fourth successive season of decline.
The series of disappointing harvests in a region which is also
the top consumer of the oilseed helped Paris rapeseed futures hit a record
E526.25 a tonne earlier this month.
The August lot stood at E498.50 a tonne in late trade on
Tuesday, a rise of 0.3% on the day, while the better-traded November contract
was up 0.1% at E504.00 a tonne.