Discontent at crop export policies, and hopes of forcing prices higher, are prompting Argentine farmers to withhold sales of what is expected to be a record soybean crop, Oil World has said.

The analysis group also lowered its forecast for Paraguay's harvest, and flagged the risk of fungal disease in Brazil, in a report it said could be considered somewhat "bullish".

Growers' advance sales of Argentina's soybean crop, which is expected to jump nearly 60% to 51.0m tonnes this year, are believed to have fallen considerably short of historic levels, the analysis group said.

"Farmers have been very reserved sellers of new crop soybeans so far," Oil World said.

'Create tightness' 

The reluctance reflects hopes of squeezing a better deal from Argentina's government, which imposes a 35% levy on soybean shipments.

Farmers' discontent at export curbs, aimed in part at keeping domestic prices in check, resurfaced last week in protests, and calls for policy change.

Growers are also holding off in the hope that "they will create tightness on the export markets, which will support prices", Oil World analyst Christoph Juenemann told Agrimoney.com.

Soybean prices fell by 13 pesos to 940 pesos ($239.50) a tonne on Monday on Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange, the fourth successive negative close.

Separately, crop consultancy Celeres has reported forward soybean sales by Brazilian farmers lagging too, at 30% of the crop compared with an average of 44% at this time of year.

Bumper shipments 

With Oil World also cutting its hopes for Paraguay's soybean harvest by 400,000 tonnes to 6.6m tonnes because of dry weather, and seeing Asian rust disease as persisting in some Brazilian crops, Tuesday's report was "in a way, bullish", Mr Juenemann added.

Nonetheless, the group said it expected Brazil's soybean exports to jump to 2.2m-2.6m tonnes this month, more than three times higher than in February last year, if below some trade forecasts of shipments of 3m tonnes.

The German-based group has estimated Brazil's early soybean crop at a record 64m-65m tonnes, up from 57.4m tonnes last year.