The rebound in Argentina's soybean production next year may be even stronger than has been thought - with farmers' dash to cash in on a tight market limited only by a shortage of seed.
US staff in Buenos Aires have raised to 52.0m tonnes their forecast for Argentina's soybean crop in 2009-10, 1.0m tonnes higher than official Washington estimates and a jump of 63% year on year.
Exports will nearly triple to 12.0m tonnes in the year beginning next April.
The revision, which comes ahead of Friday's release of revised US Department of Agriculture projections, reflects in part Argentina's recovery from a drought which sent soybean production down 31% to 32.0m tonnes.
Extra plantings
However, farmers are also planting more acres than originally thought with soybeans, switching from other crops including wheat, where sowings have dropped to a century-low, as well as ploughing up pastures and 100,000 hectares of previously unused land.
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Argentina's soybean crop, 2008-09
Plantings: 17.2m hectares
Production: 32.0m tonnes
Exports: 4.15m tonnes
Crush: 32.5m tonnes
Estimates for year beginning April 2009
Source: USDA |
Cattle have been moved to "marginal lands on the northern and western fringes of the humid pampas provinces", a report from US attaches said.
Argentine soybean plantings were now expected at at least 18.5m hectares, 500,000 hectares more than previous forecasts and 1.3m hectares more than last year.
"Planted area could very likely be revised upward in the months to come, possibly surpassing 19m hectares," the report said.
Brown-bag beans
A lack of seed would prevent plantings going much higher, with farmers' practice of keeping home grown - or so-called "brown-bag" � beans for sowing unlikely to solve the shortfall.
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Argentina's soybean crop, 2009-10
Plantings: 18.5m hectares
Production: 52.0m tonnes
Exports: 12.0m tonnes
Crush: 37.5m tonnes
Estimates for year beginning April 2010
Source: USDA attache report |
"Due to last year's drought, brown-bag seeds will likely have lower germination rates and farmers will probably increase seed rates to compensate," the report said.
"Furthermore, there are reportedly less seeds available this season and... contacts indicate that, as a result, surpassing 20m hectares will not be possible."