The US estimate for global wheat stocks at the end of next year may be 20m tonnes too generous, Australia's agricultural economics office has signalled, despite raising its forecast for production.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has pegged wheat inventories at 162m tonnes at the end of the 2009-10 marketing year.

The US Department of Agriculture earlier this month put its forecast at 182.7m tonnes.

While accounting differences may explain part of the mismatch – Australia starts its wheat marketing year in October, while the US year begins in May – the two statistics offices have historically been in close agreement.

For instance, Abare estimates closing stocks 2007-08 at 118m tonnes, within 2m tonnes of the US figure, with production figures matching at 609m tonnes.

Harvest upgrade 

Abare's lower figure reflects a gloomier estimate of production in 2009-10, which the bureau pegs at 647m tonnes.

While 15m tonnes higher than its May estimate, the figure is 9m tonnes short of the US forecast.

Abare gave no reason for revising its prediction, but said that falls in output from Canada, the European Union, Russia and the US would be in part offset by larger Argentine and Australian crops.

The bureau also raised by 13m tonnes to 641m tonnes its forecast for global wheat use, again without explanation.