Shares in agribusiness groups are set to raise returns by more than 60% in 2010, making the sector likely to prove one of Sydney's best performers, Commonwealth Bank of Australia has said
The sector will maintain a winning streak which has seen it post positive returns of 2.4% over the last month, compared with a negative 1.9% from the average Sydney stock.
In 2010, shareholder returns - a measure which includes dividends as well as share price rises - will hit 16.4%, compared with 9.7% this year.
"The sector's strength is evident during the past month," Brendan White, a CBA executive, said.
"Two of the largest companies that make up the [sector], Incitec Pivot and Nufarm, have performed exceptionally well and this is testament that the sector is in good health."
And, with many agribusiness groups raising profits forecasts since the start of their financial years, which begins in October for many Australian agribusinesses, "positive results are expected to continue in 2010".
Mr White added: "The consensus forecast return continues to increase."
East vs west
The forecast was made before the announcement by Nufarm that Sinochem, its Chinese suitor, had cut its bid.
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Australia agribusiness share returns (compared with S&P/ASX 200 index)
One month: 2.4% (-1.9%)
Three months: 0.1% (0.9%)
Six months: 8.8% (20.1%)
12 months: 9.7% (37.4%)
Since April 2000: 75.4% (117.1%)
Source: Commonwealth Bank of Australia |
CBA's agricultural index, which comprises only domestic companies, also excludes GrainCorp, which unveiled a profits warning on Tuesday, now that the grain handler's acquisition of United Malt Holdings has turned it into an international enterprise.
Mr White said that while the wheat crop on Australia's east coast - GrainCorp's stamping ground - had proved "patchy", the harvest in Western Australia, the country's biggest grain-producing state, had been "above average".
Since the start of the century, Australian farm business shares have underperformed, producing returns of 75% compared with 117% for the average Sydney share.