of Australia is poised to cut its forecast for the Australian wheat harvest, although
it is unclear that the downgrade will lower further bar on estimates for the crop.
The bank, which in
August lowered its forecast for the crop by 1.0m tonnes to 23.95m tonnes, will
on Friday unveil a fresh, and lower, estimate, CBA analyst Luke Mathews said.
The downgrade will
reflect the impact of dry conditions "which have prevailed across much of the grain,
belt, South Australia, the Mallee in Victoria," he told Agrimoney.com.
"Parts of Western
Australia and New South Wales are too dry."
Indeed, the cut
would be the latest in a series by commentators, including a cut to 20m tonnes in the Australia & New Zealand Bank forecast which Agrimoney.com revealed last month.
'At least 2m tonnes too high'
On Wednesday, farm
officials in New South Wales cautioned over damage to grain crops from dry
weather, and warned of further losses if rains are not forthcoming, while grain
handler CBH Group trimmed expectations for the Western Australian harvest.
And the US Department
of Agriculture's bureau in Canberra cut by 2.0m tones its forecast for the Australian
harvest, if to a figure of 24.0m tonnes which remains well above consensus
"It is likely the
24m-tonne estimate is still at least 2m tonnes too high," Mr Mathews said,
while declining to reveal the range of figures CBA was considering downgrading
its number to.
The market appears
to be factoring in a crop of about 20m-22.5m tonnes, he said.