09:57 UK, 19th August 2009, by Agrimoney.com
Cash market fears may be behind AWB stampede

Fears for Australia's cash market may be behind the haste to sign up for the Aus$15-a-tonne premiums being offered by AWB to wheat farmers who commit in advance to its sales pools.

AWB, Australia's former wheat export monopoly, said it had closed its early-bird premium for growers of noodle wheat after two days, and highlighted rapid take-up of bonuses for committing other types of wheat.

Many farmers have remained sceptical over signing-up early to pools, and over the lack of transparency surrounding some early-commitment programmes.

However, an industry insider told Agrimoney.com that farmers may be keener this year to bank a premium because of fears for spot prices at harvest time - given forecasts of bumper global production and the one-off support that Australian deregulation gave the cash market last season.

Land grab

Last harvest, Australian wheat growers enjoyed "a lot of cash price activity", despite a record global harvest and declining international prices, as the elimination of AWB's export monopoly prompted rival grain handlers to bid up for market share.

"But that may not be a sustainable way to run a business," the insider said.

"Most people expect something different this time. They have seen the US forecasts [for rich global wheat supplies]."

Stuart Richardson, spokesman for AWB's Australian commodity management division, noted farmers' comments that they were splitting sales between pool and cash markets, so "spreading risk and managing cashflow".

Earlier bird

AWB introduced its early-commitment premiums three years ago in an effort to improve its ability to plan ahead on sales and finances, with early-bird sign-ups accounting for 40% of wheat handled two years ago.

Some rival grain handlers run similar schemes.

This year, AWB advanced the start of the sign-up programme to August from October.

The company told Agrimoney.com that it may, next month, reveal figures on the levels of early-bird sign-ups.

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