Cattle prices may avoid their typical winter price decline because of an unusual dynamic in the feeder cattle market, Washington officials have said.

While values of feeder cattle followed a historical pattern by firming in late October and early November, they may sidestep the usual follow-on weakness caused by a switch by consumers to ham and turkey during the Christmas and Thanksgiving period.

"While cattle prices often decline into winter, bottoming in January or February, much uncertainty exists at present," the US Department of Agriculture said in a livestock outlook report.

Size vs number

The uncertainty is down to the "conflicting effects" on feedlots of a slowdown in placements, but an increase in the weight of cattle taken on.

The proportion of cattle weighing at least 800 pounds taken into feedlots hit an "unusually large" 35% in the July-to-September quarter, potentially leading to a rise in carcass weights in the first half of next year.

This would likely feed back negatively into cattle prices.

However, by number, cattle placements in feedlots earlier this year strayed into some of their lowest levels since 1996, thanks in part to a slide in Canadian imports, and in part down to dwindling supply of animals outside feedlots.

Low placements in May and June "could lead to some measure of price support during November and December", the USDA said.

Falling stocks

Indeed, the number of cattle available to feedlots looks set to continue falling, given the relatively high proportion of heifers – future breeding stock – being sold into feedlots.

"The 38.5% of steers and heifers on feed, large by observed proportions for the last 7-8 years, indicates a lack of potential for any near-term cow inventory expansion," the USDA said.