The cold temperatures which have, at last, brought widespread frosts to the UK are a boon to growers' hopes of achieving one of their best ever wheat crops, Strategie Grains said.

The influential analysis group forecast that the European Union's third-biggest wheat producer is on for a harvest of 15.7m tonnes next year, one of its best-ever results - assuming the country does not suffer another historically dry spring.

The figure, up 2.2% from the 15.36m tonnes achieved this year, reflects a yield estimate of 7.94m tonnes, up for the 7.8m tonnes achieved in the 2011 harvest, when the dearth of spring rains "caused problems for tiller emergence and restricted the number of ears per square metre".

"For 2012-13, we are working on the assumption that weather conditions will be closer to the norm," the Paris-based group said.

'Cold conditions now essential'

However, the crop could yet be set back by a return to mild conditions, allowing plants to over-develop, and leaving them vulnerable to cold snap later in the winter.

"Cold conditions are now essential in order to prevent the plant growth becoming too advanced before the onset of winter, which would make the plants overly susceptible to any sudden drop in the temperature below freezing."

Rapeseed too

The comments follow a warning from the UK's Home Grown Cereals Authority crop bureau over strong rapeseed development, which had left crops open to yield damage from snow falls and, later in the season, competition for light.

However, high winds this week have bought colder temperatures to the UK this week, and expected to see temperatures drop as low as -4 degrees Celsius (25 degrees Fahrenheit) over the weekend.

London feed wheat for May, the best-traded contract, closed up 0.6% at £143.70 a tonne on Thursday.