Commodities are at the start of a fresh "uptrend" in their affection amongst investors, ending a spell of liquidation which totalled $2.2bn last month in exchange traded products alone.
"We have already started to see flows back into funds tracking commodity indices, and commodity speculators are taking a more bullish stance," Standard Chartered said.
Data showing funds putting $103m into commodity-based exchange traded products last week, including $40m into agricultural investments, "underpin out view of an uptrend starting in the first quarter", the bank said.
"Momentum across the commodities spectrum appears to be bullish for now."
Indeed, since December 20 funds had put a net $354m into the asset class.
Such investments were helped by an upbeat outlook for prices which the bank itself shared, saying commodity prices "should end the first quarter at higher levels than at the beginning of the year".
'Tip-toeing rather than hurtling'
The idea tallies with findings on Tuesday by Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey that fund managers had this month continued to rebuild an overweight position in commodities, to the highest level since August, albeit to holdings far smaller than those a year ago.
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Holdings in commodity ETPs, December, and (month's inflows)
Precious metals: $139.5bn, (-$1.72bn)
Commodity indices: $16.3bn, (unchanged)
Energy: $7.4bn, (-$200m)
Agricultural: $5.0bn, (-$300m)
Base metals: $1.6bn, (unchanged)
Source: Societe Generale |
Fears for commodity price inflation showed some resurgence too as investors showed what the bank termed a "reawakened sense of optimism towards the global economy, and greater appetite for risk".
Michael Hartnett, the bank's chief global equity strategist, said that "investors are tip-toeing rather than hurtling toward higher risk exposure".
Separately, Societe Generale, which last year warned of the role of fears of bank collapses in a "bloodbath" in commodities, as investors withdrew for fear of counterparty risk, flagged that concerns over lenders had reduced, and should continue to do so.
Money withdrawn
Indeed, a revival in sentiment towards commodities would follow sell-downs in exchange traded products (ETPs) which, late in the year, hurt even holdings of precious metals, which had held firm, being prized as safe haven assets.
Precious metal ETPs suffered outflows of $1.72bn last month, on Societe Generale calculations.
For agricultural-based ETPS, outflows were $300m, a ninth successive month of reduced exposure. Outflows since March totalled $1.8bn.
'Strong demand'
However, in 2012, "speculators have already begun to add net long positions in the agricultural sector, and we are seeing mild inflows into agricultural index exchanged traded funds," Standard Chartered said, attributing interest in part to the crop threat represented by extreme dryness in South America.
The bank, which has been particularly upbeat over prospects for soybean prices, said it remained "bullish" for the oilseed, restating a target price for Chicago futures of $13.50 a bushel.
"Demand from China is strong," the bank said.