Cotton represents the last stand for optimists of farm commodity prices, for now, with speculators' take on soybeans, soymeal and sugar is souring particularly fast.
Managed funds have raised their net long positions on New York cotton by 4,400 lots to nearly 63,700 contracts as of March 9, US regulatory data showed.
The improvement continued a trend of increased buying pressure which helped drive prices to a two-year high of 84.32 cents a pound at the start of the month.
'Fundamentals supportive'
However, the funds lowered long bets in most other agricultural commodities, notably in Chicago soybeans, where the advantage of long positions over short positions slumped by more than 15,000 contracts, and soymeal, where their net long position halved to 11,000 lots.
In New York sugar, they cut their net long position by more than 14,000 contracts for a second successive week.
"The only market that saw any considerable increase in the net speculator position was cotton," analysts at Rabobank said.
"The fundamentals for cotton remain supportive, encouraging speculative interest."
Sugar's rout over?
Cotton prices have been supported by growing demand, encouraged by global economic recovery, at a time of weak harvests, notably in China and the US, the first and third-ranked producers respectively.
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Managed funds' net long positions, March 9 (change on week)
Chicago corn: 85,868 contracts (-2,874)
Chicago soybeans: 11,826 contracts (-15,264)
Chicago wheat: -32,847 contracts (-108)
Chicago soymeal: 11,032 contracts (-12,344)
NY cotton: 63,680 contracts (+4,371)
NY sugar: 120,372 contracts (-14,755)
All major farm commodities: 338,948 (-43,584)
Source: CFTC/Rabobank |
Nonetheless, cotton prices eased nearly 2% last week, joining in a rout led by sugar, which slumped more than 10% in New York as weak technical signals exacerbated selling pressure caused by order cancellations by some major buyers.
Indeed, the slide in speculators' long interest in sugar led some analysts on Monday to predict that the worst of the correction may be over, for now, given that so many sellers have already quit.
"Price pressure on this front should gradually ease," Commerzbank analysts said.
At Sucden Financial, David Sadler said: "One feels that as long as the dollar makes no further substantial gains, that the sugar market should continue to consolidate and possibly improve."
New York sugar for May slipped 0.28 cents to 19.39 cents a pound, with London's May white sugar contract adding $0.60 to $541.20 a tonne.
May cotton finished 0.29 cents higher at 80.76 cents a pound in New York.