Cotton's rapid rise to its highest for nearly two years has left the market vulnerable to following sugar into a correction, Sucden Financial France analyst William Adjadj has said.

New York cotton for delivery this month rose 1.4% to 83.75 cents a pound on Monday, the highest for the spot contract since March 2008.

The commodity has been supported by expectations of a brisk rebound in Chinese demand, spurred by economic recovery, at a time of weak global production.

However, the rise, which has reached 24% over the last four weeks, had happened "too quickly" to look sustainable, Mr Adjadj said.

'Will correct' 

"The fundamentals are still bullish, no question," he told Agrimoney.com.

"But the pace of the rally has been tremendous. Cotton did not stop to regroup. There was no consolidation.

"I think the market will correct. As to when, my belief is in the short term."

When prices did turn, the speed of the ascent would deny it the technical resistance levels, such as troughs from sell-offs, which might slow the market's descent, he added.

'Too early' 

The comments follow a warning last week from Fortis Nederland that the cotton rally had "kicked off too early to be solidly based".

The bank said: "All it will do is encourage much more planting. It does not take much of a price rise to tempt farmers back."

The US Department of Agriculture has forecast a surge of 29% to 16.0m bales in America's 2010-11 production, as higher prices tempt growers from other crops.

And the Hightower Report, which has been bullish on cotton prices, has also turned more cautious, noting the rise in particular in the near-term contract.

"On the one hand, this tells us that this is a genuine fundamental bull move is underway in cotton led by old crop tightness and that strong demand may tighten stocks even further before the next US cotton crop is harvested," Hightower founder Dave Hightower said.

"On the other hand, the concentration of strength in nearby contracts suggests that there will be pauses and corrections in the rally in more deferred contracts."

He added: "The market is overbought, which means that traders should concentrate on taking profits from the long side and waiting to buy in May or July contracts on a setback."