Russia's grain harvest may not fall as far as some analysts have predicted, US farm officials have said, noting the better quality of crops compared with a year ago.
US Department of Agriculture attaches in Moscow cut by 3m tonnes their estimate for Russia's grain crop, following the lead of many other observers who have noted higher-than-expected rates of winterkill, some dryness and lower spring plantings.
Winter crops had suffered a "lack of moisture in some Volga Valley and Central European provinces", the attaches said in a report.
However, at 92m tonnes, their revised estimate remains above that of Russia's farm ministry, which last month slashed its estimate by 7m tonnes to 90m tonnes, and SovEcon, the respected analysis group, which has pegged the crop at 84m-89m tonnes.
'Good condition'
The relatively upbeat forecast reflected hopes that the autumn-sown crops "will not decrease dramatically" from last year, when Russia harvested a total of 97m tonnes of grain.
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USDA attache estimates for Russian grain, 2010-11 (yr-on-yr change)
Wheat production: 57.5m tonnes (-6.8%)
Barley production: 15.8m tonnes (-11.6%)
Corn production: 5.5m tonnes (+39%)
Oats production: 5.0m tonnes
Rye production: 4.0m tonnes
Total grains (incl others): 91.9m tonnes |
"For many farmers, grain production still remains the major source of income, and they will do their best to harvest as much as possible," the report said.
Furthermore, early reports from southern provinces, where growers have begun the harvest a week earlier than normal, "indicate the crops are in good condition".
"Current stands look better than last year" in the areas where combines are rolling, the report said.
Exports stable
The relatively strong harvest - coupled with stocks from least season of 16m tonnes, "one of the largest stock carry overs in 15 years" – will enable Russia to maintain its pace of exports.
Shipments for 2010-11 will come in at 20.2m tonnes, with wheat comprising the great majority of trade.
The forecast is in line with that of other research groups, including Aston, which on Monday were reported to have forecast that Russia would export 18m tonnes of wheat and 2m tonnes of barley.
Other grains, such as corn, oats and rye, account for only a small proportion of trade.
Levels of Russian grain shipments have become of huge importance for world trade, after accounting for 70% of the growth of 24m tonnes in world exports over the last decade, taking market share from in particular the US.
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