The decline in the Australian dollar, which returned to the back foot on Friday, may boost prospects for agricultural groups other than grains exporters, Credit Suisse analysts have said.
Fertilizer group Incitec Pivot, aluminium-to-sugar conglomerate CSR and farm supplies group Nufarm among leading contenders to benefit from the fall in Australia's currency, the investment bank said.
Every Aus$0.05 decline in the Australian dollar/ US dollar exchange rate should boost next year's earnings at CSR by about Aus$10m, thanks the group's active currency and commodity hedging, which will enhance its competitiveness against more passive rivals.
Incitic Pivot should see a jump of Aus$43.8m in earnings, or nearly 9%, from a 5-cent drop, thanks to the foreign contributions of its explosives operations, and the use of the US dollars as the currency of fertilizer deals.
The company was "highly levered" to the Aussie-greenback exchange rate, Credit Suisse said.
"Incitic Pivot transactional exposure is via fertiliser sales – fertiliser is priced in US dollars - where the lower the exchange rate the higher the Australian dollars Incitic Pivot receives."
'Straight line trajectory'
The comments come as grain handlers AWB and GrainCorp are voicing hopes that the decline in the Aussie dollar - which has lost nearly 8 cents, or 8.5%, against the greenback this month – would support revenues by increasing the attractions of Australian wheat exports.
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Sensitivity to Aus$0.05 change in Aus$/US$ exchange rate
Incitec Pivot: operating profit, Aus$60-65m; earnings Aus$43.8m
CSR: operating profit, Aus$14.3m; earnings Aus$10m
Nufarm: operating profit, Aus$5.5m; earnings Aus$3.8m
Source: Credit Suisse |
The Aussie, which last year gained 50% against the US dollar in what Bank of New York Mellon termed a "straight line" trajectory from a February low, has been undermined by fears for a slowdown in economic growth in China, a big buyer of Australian commodities.
Furthermore, pollsters have identified a growing chance that elections later this year will produce a so-called hung parliament, in which no party has overall control, forcing a coalition which, the theory goes, may lack the strength to take tough measures in what are still difficult global economic circumstances.
Similar concerns, after indecisive UK elections, have been blamed for undermining the pound.
Aussie fades
The Aussie stood 0.6% lower at 84.55 US cents at 13:45 GMT, although comfortable above a 10-month low hit earlier in the week.
Incitec shares, which have declined this year despite the weaker dollar, closed up 0.7% at Aus$3.01 in Sydney, with Nufarm shares, which have followed a similar path, hitting a multi-year low on Monday, adding 0.8% to Aus$6.00.
CSR shares ended 2.1% higher at Aus$1.695.
The group on Wednesday heard that Australian authorities had delayed a final decision on whether it can sell its sugar division to China's Bright Food Group for US$1.6bn.