A cut in northern hemisphere plantings represents the best hope for durum prices, which are being depressed by a drop in exports despite rising production.

Durum prices have failed to enjoy the autumn bounce of other wheats, dropping more than 40% over the last six months to below Aus$250 a tonne in Australia's cash market.

And, with stocks "burdensome", it was "difficult to see any major price recovery" in the first half of next year, ProFarmer Australia said.

"There is certainly no shortage of durum wheat across the globe, especially in North America, and quality looks good," the consultancy said.

"The potential for price recovery will come with new crop northern hemisphere plantings."

The grain is typically spring planted in the northern hemisphere.

The report came as AWB, the Australian grain handler, raised its forecast for farmers' takings from its mainstream wheat pools but cut hopes for durum returns.

'Awash with durum'

ProFarmer trimmed its hopes for Australia's durum crop to 600,000 tonnes, thanks to "disappointing" yields in northern areas, which look set to more than make up for a better performance in the south.

Also, at 8.4m tonnes, its forecast for European Union output is higher than some other observers, such as the Canadian Wheat Board, the world's biggest wheat seller.

Meanwhile, good harvests in North Africa have reduced the region's needs for imports to meet demand.

"It will take more than reduced planting to whittle away the carryover," ProFarmer said.