18:52 UK, 30th July 2010, by Agrimoney.com
CWB cuts wheat hopes for sodden Canada again

The Canadian Wheat Board has cut further its estimate for the wheat crop in Canada's agricultural heartland, blaming a "dire" combination of poor sowings and yield prospects caused by a wet spring.

The board, the world's biggest seller of barley and wheat, pegged the wheat harvest in western Canada at 18.45m tonnes, a reduction of 450,000 tonnes on its estimate last month.

The region, which is responsible for more than 90% of Canada's wheat production, was now on course for a fall of nearly one-quarter in wheat output, reflecting the "excess rains" that had prevented many farmers from completing sowings, and cut prospects for crop already in the ground.

About 10.5m acres of land - an area bigger than Switzerland - had gone unseeded, while the downpours had also "ruined the prospects for another 2.5m acres that did get in the ground", the board said.

'It's devastating'

Weather records showed that much of Canada's prairies, notably in Saskatchewan province, had received record rainfall over the last four months.

West Canada crop forecasts, change on June estimate, (and on 2009-10)

All wheat: 18.45m tonnes, -450,000 tonnes, (-24%)

Includes durum: 2.9m tonnes, -300,000 tonnes, (-47%)

Barley: 7.5m tonnes, -100,000 tonnes,    (-15.7%)

Unsown area: 10.5m acres

CWB bulk grain exports: 15.1m tonnes, N/A, (-19.7%)

Source: CWB  

While most of the excess was received in the spring, heavy rains had persisted in many regions over the past month, when Saskatoon had received more than twice the average rainfall.

Allen Oberg, the CWB chairman, said: "Farmers are resilient, but when you cannot even get seed into the ground, it's devastating."

Ian White, the CWB chief executive, added: "A great many farmers are not going to have a good year."

Export hit 

Durum, the type of wheat used in pasta, took the brunt of the latest downgrade, with the production estimate cut by 300,000 tonnes to 2.9m tonnes. Production at that level would be a little over half last year's.

The board also cut its estimate for the region's barley harvest by 100,000 tonnes to 7.5m tonnes.

The cuts would limit to 15.1m tonnes the board's grain exports, a fall of nearly 20% on last year's result, and below the long-term average.

The 30% jump in wheat prices in Chicago and Paris this month reflects expectations that, with exports limited from Canada and especially the former Soviet Union, European and US grain will be in greater international demand. 

Canada was the world's second-biggest wheat exporting country in 2009-10.



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