Kazakhstan has confirmed suspicions that, like neighbouring Russia, it is suffering significant crop damage to drought, forecasting a slump of up to 30% in grain production.

The smallest member of the Black Sea agricultural triumvirate will harvest 14.5m-15.5m tonnes of grain this year, Arman Yevniyev, Kazakhstan's deputy agriculture minister, said.

The sharp fall from last year's 20.8m-tonne crop reflects in part lower sowings of grains, which some farmers have turned away from in favour of oilseeds, but also the dry weather which is devastating Russian crops.

"There was drought in some regions and conditions were difficult there," Mr Yevniyev said.

Below forecasts

He added that "the general state of the crop is satisfactory" with at most 10% in poor condition.

Nonetheless, the decline forecast for Kazakhstan's harvest would be even more severe than that expected Russia, which analysts currently see as suffering at most a 17% slide in grains production.

Indeed, Mr Yevniyev's data represents a huge departure from US Department of Agriculture estimates, regarded as the global benchmark.

USDA statisticians last month pegged Kazakhstan's wheat harvest alone at 17.0m tonnes, although they will release updates forecasts for world crops on Friday.

Traders believe that the USDA will cut its estimate of world production of the grain by 5m-20m tonnes, reflecting weather concerns already confirmed in Canada, Europe and Russia, but which had been suspected in Kazakhstan too.

Impact on exports

Mr Yevniyev said that, despite the harvest shortfall, its decline in grains exports would be, at worst, some 20%, supported by stocks of 6m tonnes carried over from last year's record harvest.

Kazakhstan has been keen to raise its status as a grain exporter to diversify earnings from oil and enrich its rural economy, and has won some notable successes in tenders by Egypt, the world's biggest wheat exporter.

The country is to develop its export infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, to provide an alternative to rail transport to Russian and Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, Mr Yevniyev added.