Mexico's corn imports are poised to jump by 28% to a record high as the country grapples with the hangover of a drought billed as its worst for 68 years, US staff have warned
US attaches in Mexico City have raised to 9.8m tonnes their forecast for Mexico's foreign corn purchases in 2009-10.
The figure beats both the official US Department of Agriculture estimate of imports of 9.0m tonnes and the high of 9.56m tonnes set two years ago.
The fresh forecast reflects waning hopes for Mexico's corn harvest, which looks set to come in at 22.0m tonnes, 500,000 tonnes below previous hopes, because of a dearth of summer rains.
It also raises hopes for US farmers, who provide Mexico with all its corn imports.
Farmers give up
Rainfall of 10.1cm in July, 28% below average, "created a huge problem for farmers", delaying planting in some areas while leading to unviable crops in others, the attaches said in a report.
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Mexican corn imports, according to official USDA estimates
2009-10: 9.00m tonnes
2008-09: 7.70m tonnes
2007-08: 9.56m tones
2006-07: 8.94m tonnes
2005-06: 6.79m tonnes |
Harvest progress had fallen significantly behind year on year, reflecting both the late sowing and abandoned crops.
"A number of farmers stopped harvesting portions of their land because of severe weather drastically reducing yields," the report said.
The 2009 corn area registered as damaged is estimated by Mexican officials at 1.4m hectares, more than double that of a year before.
Nonetheless, production looks set to beat the worst estimates of many analysts, including Rabobank, which in September said drought could cut output to 18.5m tonnes.