The dry weather which beset crops in countries such as France appears to have been more damaging than the worst floods for a century further east, industry leaders believe, cutting their forecast for Europe's grain.

The European Union now looked on track to produce 283.7m tonnes of grain this year, 3.7m tonnes less than previously expected, according to Coceral, an industry group whose members include merchants and farmer groups from across Europe.

While the group did not expand on its revision, which leaves the EU on track to harvest 10m tonnes less grain than in 2009, the change was nearly all accounted for by the west of the region, which suffered dry weather for much of the spring.

Hopes for France - the EU's biggest producer, whose northern areas were particularly badly affected - were sliced by 1.6m tonnes to 66.4m tonnes, with hopes for second-ranked Germany cut by 640,000 tonnes.

Flood losses 

In the east, estimates for the harvest in Poland, where 20 people died in floods, were cut by 520,000 tonnes.

However, this was more than offset by better hopes for crops in nearby countries such as Romania, where rainfall did not reach such deleterious levels.

Overall hopes for grain crops in eastern European countries were marginally better than in March, when Coceral made its initial forecasts.

Barley and wheat suffer

By crop, hopes for barley and wheat were cut most, by around 1.3m tonnes apiece. The barley harvest, at 55.3m tonnes, will come in 10.9% below last year's, Coceral believes.

Among oilseeds, the forecast for the rapeseed crop was trimmed by 69,000 tonnes to 20.7m tonnes.

However, the decline was partly offset by better hopes for sunflowers and soybeans, leaving Coceral's estimate for the total EU oilseeds crop only 23,000 tonnes lower at 28.3m tonnes.

German prospects

Separately, Toepfer International estimated Germany's wheat crop of all types at 25.3m-25.8m tonnes, a modest improvement on last year's harvest, and on the Coceral estimate.

"The sometimes substantial rainfall since early May has replenished ground water reserves and so has raised the prospects for the grain and rapeseed harvest," Toepfer, Germany's largest grain trading house, said.

However, Germany's total grains crop was set to fall to 46.5m-47.5m tonnes, from nearly 50m tonnes in 2009, held back by lower corn and rye harvests.