European Union corn imports could be far higher than major analysis groups are factoring in, some investors believe, thoughts enhanced by talk of France's largest-ever shipment of the grain.

Many analysts see EU corn imports in 2012-13 being limited to around historic averages, despite disappointing harvest prospects, by inventories left over from last year's bumper crop.

The US Department of Agriculture has pegged imports at 3.0m tonnes, a figure quoted by Hamburg-based grain trader Toepfer International, which flagged the prospect of at least a "very good harvest" in Germany.

That level would in fact be less than half the level estimated for last season, when a stocks rebuild and rising exports boosted the need for imports.

'As much as 11m tonnes'

However, the International Grains Council on Friday raised its forecast for EU corn imports by 2.0m tonnes to 7.5m tonnes, while Strategie Grains has forecast buy-ins at 8.2m tonnes. The European Union on Monday estimated imports at 6.5mn tonnes.

And even these figures may be underestimates, given the prospect of a poor harvest in the bloc itself, where the Romanian crop in particular has disappointed, and may potentially halve this season.

A disappointing wheat crop too, especially in the UK, has also underpinned the need for feed.

"A number of analysts have suggested that that EU could import as much as 11m tonnes" of corn, grain traders at a major European commodities house said, a figure which would represent a five-year high, and come as a weak crop in the US, the top producer, has sent global prices soaring.

Goldman restated forecasts that corn could yet rebound to $9 a bushel in Chicago, representing a fresh record high.

GM question

Ukrainian corn is seen as a competitively priced feed grain, although some believe that the South American supplies which US buyers are increasingly turning to could make their way to the EU as well, if restrictions on genetically modified crops are loosened.

The European Commission is expected within a month to decide on Syngenta's MIR 162 insect-resistant variety of biotech corn.

The decision comes at a time of heightened concerns among some EU quarters over the safety of genetically modified foods, after French researchers last month said last month that rats fed on GM corn produced by Monsanto or exposed to its key herbicide died earlier than those on a standard diet.

'Significantly cheaper than Russian'

Separately, France, the bloc's top corn grower, was reported to have to made its largest ever corn shipment, of 55,000 tonnes, to South Korea.

The trade would also be the first shipment to Asia of French corn, which is more usually exported elsewhere in the EU if not used at home.

Rising corn imports would also free up the EU to export more wheat, for which importers are increasingly turning to the continent now that Black Sea supplies are drying up.

"Into the Egyptian market, French wheat is now significantly cheaper than Russian, so talk of a Russian export ban is becoming largely irrelevant," the traders said.