European Union grains output this year has increased by nearly the equivalent of a Polish harvest – the bloc's third biggest – Coceral said, hiking its estimate for production above 300m tonnes.
The Brussels-based industry group upgraded its estimate of the EU grains crop by 8.2m tonnes to 302.9m tonnes, leapfrogging forecasts from some other commentators.
The International Grains Council pegs the harvest at 298.9m tonnes, and the US Department of Agriculture at 299.1m tonnes, with Strategie Grains putting the crop at 301.1m tonnes.
And separately on Friday, European producers' group Copa-Cogeca pegged the harvest at 298.9m tonnes.
Spain overtakes UK
The Coceral figure implies an increasing in production of more than 27m tonnes.
That is nearly the size of the Polish harvest, and more than the 24.5m tonnes produced by Spain which, helped by a favourable growing season for rains, took fourth place in the rankings, overtaking the UK, which has had a 20.9m-tonne crop.
EU growing conditions have been, broadly, far better this year than in 2012, when Spanish crops were dogged by drought while western countries, notably the UK, grappled with extreme rains, and eastern states were forced into large-scale replantings after a late-winter cold snap.
Coceral's estimate for this year's EU wheat crop was, lifted by 4.1m tonnes to 143.3m tonnes, in line with that from other forecasters.
The Netherlands retained its status as the top yielding country, with an 8.70-tonnes-per-hecare result, ahead of Belgium on 8.62 tonnes per hectare, with the result in third-ranked Ireland rising 12% to 8.30 tonnes per hectare.
Copa-Cogeca estimated the EU crop at 142.0m tonnes, a rise nonetheless of 9.5%, and with much meeting milling specifications too.
"The quality is good, [with an] especially good protein content and low mycotoxin levels," Copa-Cogeca chairman M Schulman said.
Barley and corn
However, Coceral was more generous on barley production, which it forecast jumping by 13.7% to 60.2m tonnes, including a more than doubling in the Spanish crop, to 10.1m tonnes, and a 33% jump in the UK, where poor autumn sowing conditions prompted a rash of spring barley seedings.
The strong Spanish crop could prove especially significant for merchants, given the country's status in most years as a large feed grain importer.
Coceral was also more upbeat on prospects for corn than other commentators, pegging the crop at 65.4m tonnes, a downgrade of only 800,000 tonnes from its previous estimate, made three months ago.
Many other commentators have cut hopes for the corn harvest close to 64m tonnes, following an unusually dry July-August period in central Europe.
Copa-Cogeca estimated the corn crop at 63.6m tonnes.
Hungary vs Poland
In fact, while Coceral cut its forecast for the Hungarian, and French, crops, hopes for Poland and Romania were upgraded.
Coceral also lifted its forecast for the oilseeds harvest, by 2.1m tonnes to 31.0m tonnes.
This includes a 20.7m-tonne rapeseed crop, an upgrade of 750,000 tonnes.