The Europe Union's soft wheat crop may come within an ace of the bumper harvest two years ago, thanks to the strength of farmers' rejection of barley, Strategie Grains has said.

The influential analysis group raised its forecast for the harvest by 1m tonnes to 134.7m tonnes, and said that further revisions could be in the offing.

"Soft wheat production… could increase by a further 5m tonnes if there are no unfavourable weather events between now and the harvest," the Paris-based group said, lifting hopes for output in most of Europe's major grain-producing states.

A crop of 139.7m tonnes would come in only 400,000 tonnes short of the 2008 harvest.

Indeed, Strategie Grains raised its estimate for soft wheat sowings to just 200,000 hectares short of those two seasons ago, when farmers worldwide expanded crop areas to try to cash in on elevated prices.

Cold risk 

The raised hopes for wheat come at the expense of barley, for which Strategie Grains cut its planting estimate by 200,000 hectares, reflecting lower hopes for spring plantings.

Barley has fallen out of favour with farmers because of a collapse in prices, fostered by large global supplies, which in Europe has taken the market to the support level offered by intervention buying – a prop which is being removed this year.

However, Strategie Grains cautioned that weather could yet present problems for both grains notably in Eastern Europe which has suffered cold temperatures, in many cases far lower than a year ago, without as generous a snow cover as in northern and western parts of the continent.

"If the cold conditions continue for several more weeks, they could delay the start of spring barley plantings," the group added.