over the size of Romania's wheat harvest as Coceral raised further the bar on
forecasts for the European Union crop, hiking its estimate for the region's
rapeseed harvest too.
The industry group
estimated EU wheat production this year at 149.4m tonnes, up 5.71m tonnes from
its previous estimate, in March, and rendering it a harvest second only to the
152m tonnes recorded in 2008.
Indeed, the Coceral
forecast is above that from other commentators, such as Strategie Grains, which
this week raised its estimate for the crop to 147.0m tonnes, while the US Department
of Agriculture last week upgraded its figure to 146.25m tonnes.
German-based trading house, also foresees a 147.0m-tonne harvest.
Separately on Friday, producers' group Copa-Cogeca pegged the crop at 147.4m tonnes.
failed to expand on the reasons behind its revision, the upgrade reflected an
improvement of 6.0m tonnes, to 141.9m tonnes, in the forecast for the soft
wheat harvest, with the forecast for durum, used to make pasta, downgraded a
reflected in part upgrades to crops in France and Germany, the top two
producing countries and, to a lesser extent, for the third-ranked UK crop.
Romania wheat harvest, (yield) forecasts
Coceral: 8.692m tonnes, (4.10 tonnes per hectare)
Copa-Cogeca: 7.079m tonnes, (3.54 tonnes per hectare)
EU Mars: n/a, (3.57 tonnes per hectare)
Toepfer: 8.268m tonnes, (n/a)
USDA: 7.60m tonnes, (3.65 tonnes per hectare)
The French crop was
upgraded by 1.4m tonnes to 39.07m tonnes, including 37.67m tonnes of soft
wheat, with the German harvest lifted by 1.5m tonnes to 25.55m tonnes.
However, the Romanian
crop saw an even bigger upgrade, by 1.7m tonnes to 8.69m tonnes a figure more
than 1m tonnes above, for example, the USDA estimate.
for the Romanian soft wheat yield of 4.10 tonnes per hectare is well above figures from the USDA, besides from Copa-Cogeca and the European Union's Mars crop monitoring unit this
Force in exports
Romania, while a
relatively lowly-ranked producer, is closely watched as it exports a large part
of its production, and at low prices which can pressure values in bigger
Gasc, the grain
authority for Egypt, the world's top-ranked wheat importing country, bought
more than 1.6m tonnes of Romanian wheat in 2013-14 at tender, more than from any
Strategie Grains this week lifted its own estimate for the Romanian wheat
yield, citing rains which had also raised quality risks, coming late in the
"favourable crop growth conditions", said that it could yet raise its
Romania wheat yield forecast.
Coceral raised too
its estimate for the EU rapeseed harvest, the world's biggest, by 1.65m tonnes
to 22.79m tonnes, a figure again above that of many other observers.
The USDA has the crop
at 22.0m tonnes, and Toepfer at 22.29m tonnes.
the German crop, the EU's biggest, by a 500,000 tonnes to 5.94m tonnes, while
lifting the forecast for the French harvest by 115,000 tonnes to 5.23m tonnes.
The UK harvest was
pegged at 2.47m tonnes, an upgrade of 66,000 tonnes.