European soft wheat production will rise by the equivalent of an extra Italy next year, lifted by a switch from barley and improved yields, Strategie Grains has said in a report flagging a risk of lower prices.
The influential analysis group pegged 2010 soft wheat production at 133.3m tones, up 3.6m tonnes on this year's harvest.
The increase, which would take the crop within 7m tonnes of 2008's bumper harvest, reflects in part a switch in plantings from barley, which will next year lose the European Union intervention support which has prevented prices falling even further this season.
Barley production will fall to 58.7m tonnes, down by 10.2% in two seasons thanks to a comparable drop in sowings, Strategie Grains believes.
Better yields
Wheat output will also be supported by higher yields, up 0.2 tonnes per hectares at 5.9 tonnes per hectare.
|
Forecasts for EU soft wheat harvest, 2010 (year-on-year change)
Plantings: 22.8m tonnes (+1%)
Yield: 5.9 tonnes per hectare (+2%)
Production: 133.3m tonnes (+3%)
Source: Strategie Grains |
Many reports have foreseen better farm credit conditions in many parts of Eastern Europe, enabling farmers to raise spending on fertilizers and herbicides.
In Western Europe, France in October unveiled E1.75bn in farm support, after the country's agricultural trade surplus near halved in the first nine months of the year.
Other crops set to see bigger harvests next year, thanks to better yields, include durum wheat, the pasta variety, for which output will rise by 500,000 tonnes to 8.6m tonnes, and corn, which will see a 1.7m-tonne rise to 57.7m tonnes.
'Balance sheet heavy'
Next year's extra wheat production will enrich supplies which are already looking to end the 2009-10 year on a strong note.
|
Forecasts for EU grain harvest, 2010 (year-on-year change)
Plantings: 57.0m tonnes (-2%)
Yield: 5.1 tonnes per hectare (+2%)
Production: 292.1m tonnes (+0.9m tonnes)
Source: Strategie Grains |
Strategie Grains raised its forecast for year-end inventories by 1m tonnes to 17.5m tonnes, citing higher imports from outside the EU and better-than-expected crops in Belgium, Denmark, Hungary and the UK.
"The balance sheet for EU wheat therefore remains heavy," the Paris-based group said.
"The situation in France, and Germany and the UK, is particularly so. By contrast, the situation in the centre-east EU countries has improved.
"EU prices should decrease if no external factors prevent this."
Separately, official EU data showed the region's soft wheat exports rising by 256,000 tonnes to 7.8m since the start of the 2009-10 year in July.
Shipments had hit 11.0m by this time last year.
PRINTABLE VERSION
EMAIL TO A FRIEND
RSS FEEDS