PRINTABLE VERSION   EMAIL TO A FRIEND   RSS FEEDS 21:02 UK, 2nd Nov 2011, by Agrimoney.com
Firm prices to take 2012 corn sowings near to high

CF Industries raised the bar on expectations for next year's US corn sowings, seeing them set to challenge the post-World War II high, as farmers exploit prices which look set to remain strong.

The fertilizer group pegged US corn plantings next spring at 93.5m acres, a 1.6m-acre increase on this year's area, and above estimates from Informa Economics, Morgan Stanley and the US Department of Agriculture.

A figure at that level would challenge the 93.527m acres set in 2007, the highest since 1944.

The forecast reflected farm prosperity evident in record US crop farm earnings this year, which had left growers financially "very liquid", Steve Wilson, the CF Industries chairman and chief executive, told investors.

"Corn economics are very attractive for farmers," he added, forecasting that prices of the grain would remain well above historical averages, lifted by tight supplies.

Corn price prospects

Markets had "overreacted" in their sell-down of corn, with other agricultural commodities, since late August, leaving Chicago futures lower by more than $1 a bushel.

Estimates  for 2012 US corn area

CF Industries: 93.5m acres

Informa Economics: 93.1m acres

Morgan Stanley: 92.3m acres

USDA: 91.5m acres (taken from February projections)

USDA estimate for 2011 plantings: 91.9m acres

"The important thing to note is that the US Department of Agriculture is projecting the second lowest corn stocks-to-use ratio in 40 years" at the close of 2011-12, Mr Wilson told investors.

"If prices were to fall further, more feed and export demand would develop, as we actually saw in October. This would drive stocks to an even more unsustainably low level.

"It's for this reason we do not see risk to corn prices in the near term."

Corn for December fell 1.6% to $6.44 a bushel in late deals in Chicago, while remaining within a narrowing trading range it has trod for most of the month.

Shares soar 

Mr Wilson said that the "high expected plantings" were one reason why the fertilizer company was "bullish" over prospects, adding that he was "pleased over the way things are shaping up for the rest of the year and into next spring".

"Longer term, we believe that agriculture fundamentals will continue to support strong nutrient demand for the foreseeable future," he added.

The comments followed the release of results for the July-to-September period showing a jump in earnings to $330.9m from $48.2m in the same quarter of 2010, on revenues up 53% at $1.40bn.

The growth was attributed largely to strong prices.

"Contrary to normal seasonal patterns, crop nutrient prices remained firm through the summer months because of constrained global supply and strong restocking demand in the northern hemisphere," Mr Wilson said.

The earnings, equivalent to $5.16 a share on an underlying basis, beat market forecasts of a $4.92-a-share result.

CF Industries shares closed up 6.7% at $169.31 in New York.

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