Weather prospects for soybeans have been swinging between
rain and drought in Argentina so far this growing season, with analyst Dr Michael
Cordonnier now warning that as much as 1m hectares could be lost to flooding.
Since late December, rains have soaked much of the Argentine
heartland, with over a food of rains reported in the Christmas and New Year period
across Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, northern Buenos Aires, and Entre Rios.
"It is hard to get accurate information concerning the
extent of the flooding due to the holidays, but I did see one report that
mentioned 450,000 hectares had been declared a state of emergency," said Dr
"There has been localized flooding which will require
replanting of the soybeans if it dries out in time."
Dr Cordonnier said that the area, which is very flat, would require
an "extended period of time for the water to drain or soak into the soil".
"The concern is if the area will dry up enough in order to
allow planting before the time runs out."
"The soybean planting window in central Argentina closes
about January 10."
"If a farmer is desperate, they could stretch the planting
another 10-14 days, but not beyond that."
in flooded areas
Dr Cordonnier warned of a "strong possibility" that farmers
will not be able to complete sowings in time, including the sowings of second-crop
beans and the replanting of washed out first-crop fields.
"In a worst case scenario where the flooded areas do not dry
up in time to replant the soybeans, maybe as much as 1m hectares of soybeans in
Argentina may not get planted including first planting and replanting."
"That would equate to about 5% of the soybean acreage and
about 3m tonnes of soybean production."
But Dr Cordonnier noted while in areas with flooding, the
effect would be "catastrophic" the rains would actually be beneficial in areas that
"Therefore, I think the soybean yields in Argentina will be
fine, but the acreage may end up being less than anticipated."