The outlook for rice production has "deteriorated considerably" thanks to a string of natural disasters and weather anomalies, defying the improved prospects for other grains, the United Nations has warned.

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation has ditched forecasts for a small rise in rice production this year, estimating that output will fall to 448.6m tonnes from a revised 2008 figure of 459.1m tonnes.

The revision reflects poor monsoon rains, then floods, in India, the world's second-largest producer and historically a major exporter too.

"Earthquakes, cyclones, landslides or flooding have impaired crop development in Bangladesh, Taiwan, Japan, Nepal, Pakistan and the Philippines," the organisation added.

While reserves, on a global scale, appeared big enough to absorb the crop losses and remain comfortable, inventories among the big exporting nations may fall, as a percentage of use, by six points to 14% – the lowest ratio since 2005.

"Because much of the stock decline is anticipated to be concentrated in the five major exporting countries, the stocks-to-disappearance ratio of this group of countries may severely deteriorate," the UN FAO said.

Rising prices 

The organisation noted that rice prices, while below levels reached in last year's bubble, "remain high" compared with historic trends. Benchmark Thai white rice is more than 50% higher than its level two years ago.

The Philippines, the world's biggest importer of the grain whose own crops have suffered typhoon damage, on Monday said it planned a record tender of at least 600,000 tonnes of rice next month.

And India, suffering its worst drought for more than 30 years, is importing rice for the first time since 2005-06.

Wheat plantings slip 

The UN FAO raised forecasts for production of other cereals, lifting its estimate for the 2009 wheat harvest by 22.8m tonnes to 678.0m tonnes.

"The improvement may not be quite as large as expected if current harvest delays due to wet weather persist," the report said.

Nonetheless, the organisation lowered its forecasts for stocks at the end of 2009-10, noting strong food and industrial demand.

The organisation also noted a reluctance among farmers to sow winter wheat, saying "early indications point to reduced wheat areas in both Europe and the US".

The observation echoes that of many other groups, including the International Grains Council, but, like them, the UN FAO declined to place a figure on its forecast.